EUR/USD 26 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied yesterday and took out the B high so we have a new AB swing in play.

FOR TODAY:

We are currently at the B high, so we can sell at current levels after a bearish cs formation, or buy down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We are currently at the B high, we don’t have a decent swing low in place but if we get a bearish cs formation at current levels or at the open of the UK session then we can trade short. Stop 14 pips above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to retrace to the 618/786, then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for the 618 entry will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 24 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price violated the B high yet again and found resistance at 5600 before falling back.

FOR TODAY:

We will call the 5601 high of yesterday the new B with A being down at 5232. We will now wait for either a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short trade, or a long trade setup down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry; right now we have a B high. If the 5536 low remains the swing low then we will have a BF786 up at 5587. Once we hit that price, trade a bearish cs formation after that for 60-70 pips since the prior bounce is a shallow one. Stops 10 pips + spread above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Limits for the 618 will be 60-70 pips, with  the 786 entry being a ST to the BF786. Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 24 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied yesterday and took out the B high on a closing basis, so we have a new AB swing in play now.

FOR TODAY:

We can once again only sell up at the BF786 – after a bearish cs formation, or buy down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to rally to the 3038 (If 2987 remains the swing low) price level and then give us a bearish cs formation for a short entry. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a shallow bounce i.e. less than a 382, stops 10pips + spread above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to fall to the 618/786, then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for the 618 entry will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 23 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price rallied on Friday, it seemed to be giving us an AB swing that we might be able to work with.

FOR TODAY:

Looks like we can draw fibs from the A low at 5232, to our new B high at 5576. We can now only buy down at the 618/786 of this swing, or sell once we have BF786 setup.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry; right now we have a B high. We will need to wait for a swing low to form, then a rally to test the B via a BF786 setup.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 23 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied on Friday and we have an AB swing in play now.

FOR TODAY:

We can only sell up at the BF786 – after a bearish cs formation, which for now is at the 2957 price level, or buy down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to rally to the 2957 price level and then give us a bearish cs formation for a short entry. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a shallow bounce ie less than a 382, stops above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to fall to the 618/786, then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for the 618 entry will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 20 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

We are still waiting for a B to form, we still don’t have a decent swing high to call a B for now.

FOR TODAY:

We will have to wait for a swing high to form that we can call a B high. Once we have that we can draw fibs and ascertain where the 618/786 will be for long trade setups.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry, right now we don’t have a B high yet. So we will need to wait for a B to form, then a swing low to form, then a BF786 setup. So probably no short trade setup on GBP today.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. But first we need a B to form before we can draw fibs.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 20 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied and took out the A high doing a reversal on the 1h chart on EUR. We now need a decent B high swing to form in order to draw fibs to ascertain where the 618/786 will be for long entries.

FOR TODAY:

We have to wait for a B to form. We are interested in buying down at the 618/786, but first we need a swing high.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No short setups today since we would need a BF786, and we don’t have a swing high after a B high, so no BF786 short entries today.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We first need a B to form, then draw fibs and wait for price to fall to the 618/786 for a long trade setup. Doesn’t look like it will be in today’s session. Lest wait and see.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 19 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

The short  trade lost 1.5% with price taking out the A high doing a reversal on the 1H chart.

FOR TODAY:

We now have to wait for a new B to form, once we have that we will draw fibs to ascertain where the 618/786 is. We can only buy down at the 618/786, or sell once we have a BF786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry, right now we don’t have a B high yet. So we will need to wait for a B to form, then a swing low to form, then a BF786 setup. So probably no short trade setup on GBP today.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. But first we need a B to form before we can draw fibs.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 19 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied to the A high of the AB swing. We are currently sitting at the A high, if price takes out the A high we will be reversing on this pair on this timeframe.

FOR TODAY:

If we get a clear bearish cs formation at current levels it will qualify as a short entry. 

Else we have a reversal on our hands if price violates the A high on a closing basis.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation at current levels telling us that the resistance is holding. Trade this as a ST down to the BF786. Stops above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. 

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 18 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price gave us the bearish cs formation we were looking for yesterday at the B high, this will have a limit down at the BF786.

FOR TODAY:

Today We are looking for a DA86 trading day where we are looking for price to continue down to the BF786. We are looking to sell rallies until we reach the BF786.

Only if we take out the 5408 high will we be reversing on this pair.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

With a DA86 trading day today we are looking to sell rallies after bearish cs formations. Stops above the cs formation, max1.5% risk, limits set at the BF786.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.