GBP/USD 4 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Sterling yesterday. Price never hit the BF786 to trigger the short.

FOR TODAY:

We are in no man’s land on Sterling at present, being at the 382 of the big AB swing. We can only sell up at the BF786, or buy lower at the 618/786 of this swing.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 4 APRIL 2012

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Price fell past the 3229 price level to the 786 of the AB swing yesterday. The setup was not clear prior to the fall.

FOR TODAY:

Price is at the 786 of the AB swing, a bullish cs formation from current levels or lower will initiate a long trade set-up.

Short trades are only considered up at the BF786 after bearish cs formations.

A violation of 3132 will start the reversal process on this timeframe.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a clear bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We are in buy territory being at the 786 of this upswing. If we get a clear bullish cs formation we will trade it long. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits for this entry will be at  the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 4 APRIL 2012

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We had the bearish cs formation at the 618 as mentioned yesterday – but the stop was too big and price never tested it again. Price went on to rally past our 1.0338 level mentioned yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

Price broke the B low giving us a new A up at 1.0464 and we are still waiting for a B swing low to form. Until we have that we cannot do anything.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No setup here since we don’t have a swing low yet.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

No trade set-up since we need a swing low first.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 3 APRIL 2012

Note that I am still using the 4h chart for the post since its the same swing as the 1h chart, but easier to see on 4h time frame.

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No trade setup on Sterling on yesterday. Price broke the 6036 high rallying to 6062 and consolidating since.

FOR TODAY:

We will use 6062 as the new B high of the AB swing. We can only sell after price hits the BF786 of this swing, or buy a lot lower down at the 618/786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits here will be 60-70 pips since its s shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 3 APRIL 2012

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We went short on the bearish cs formation yesterday when price failed at 3384 highs. We exited that short trade with 45 pips profit. Price bounced off 3280 and rallied.

FOR TODAY:

Today again we will look to sell a failure at 3384 highs, or buy a bounce out of yesterdays low or the 3250 low. If we get failure again at 3384 then we expect price to fall to 3229.

A sustained break of the 3384 high resumes the uptrend with a new AB swing in play. The higher lows forming on the 1h chart is promising for the bulls targeting the 3384 highs.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a clear bearish cs formation from current levels or higher while inside the 3384 high for a short entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be at 3242 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will go long after a dip and a bullish cs formation inside  yesterday’s lows ,this will be a DD entry and will be god for a 100 pip rally.

Else if that support doesn’t hold the we  need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 3 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie yesterday. Price rallied to test the 618 an hour ago and gave us a huge engulfing candle. This technically is a short trade setup, but the stop is too big at present.

FOR TODAY:

Price has just rallied to the 618 and gave us a bearish cs formation. This is a short trade setup, but I will wait to see if price tests the cs formation before a fall since the stop is some 74 pips – which is too big for me. This bearish cs formation should be good for a fall to the BF786.

If the 618 doesn’t hold we have a 786 higher up at 1.0502.

Long trade setups are considered once price hits the BF786 and then gives us a bullish cs formation.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We will sell a test of the Asian high followed by a bearish cs formation. This 618 entry will be good for 60-70 pips. Stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation , max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits on this trade will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

The total pips made for March 2012 amounted to 225 pips. On 1% risk that is 4.5% return for March 2012.

GBP/USD 2 APRIL 2012

Note the 4h chart above, same AB swing as the 1h.

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No trade setup on Sterling on Friday past. Price broke the 6000 highs doing a reversal on this timeframe.

FOR TODAY:

Price hit the BF786 during the Asian session. We will look to sell another test followed by a bearish cs formation.

Else a sustained break of the 6036 high will give us a new AB swing in play.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after another test of the Asian high. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits here will be 60-70 pips since its s shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 2 APRIL 2012

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For those that traded on Friday there was a short setup that should have been exited either with 20 pips profit, or at zero in order to be flat into the weekend. Price is back at that same point at present - 05H45GMT

FOR TODAY:

Price is currently at the BF86 area, a bearish cs formation from current levels while inside the 3384 will be a sell entry.

A rally and a sustained break of 3384 negates this view giving us resumption of uptrend with a new AB swing forming.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a bearish cs formation from current levels or higher while inside the 3384 high for a short entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be at 3242 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will go long if price reaches circa 3280 or yesterday’s lows and gives us a bullish cs formation, this will be a DD entry and will be god for a 100 pip rally.

Else if that support doesn’t hold the we  need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 2 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie on Friday, price gap opened by some 100 pips last night – hence the post to be flat into the weekend.

FOR TODAY:

Price came 1 pip shy of hitting the 618 during the Asian session. We can only sell a test of the high, or buy down at the BF786.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We will sell a test of the Asian high followed by a bearish cs formation. This 618 entry will be good for 60-70 pips. Stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation , max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits on this trade will be define at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.