4 MAY 2012

There will be no trading update today since its NFP day. I do not trade on NFP day.
Trading update will resume on Monday 7th May at 06h00 GMT.

GBP/USD 3 MAY 2012

GBP/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

There was a long trade setup yesterday, but it was an hour before I stop trading so I never took the trade.

FOR TODAY:

Price bounced out of the A low late yesterday and hasn’t rallied since. We will look to see if we get another test of the low followed by a bullish cs formation for a long entry.

Shorts are only considered much higher up at the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally followed by a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to test yesterdays lows followed by clear bullish cs formations for a long entry setup. Stops will be 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits will be 10 pips inside the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 3 MAY 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

We limited out with 50 pips profit on our short trade yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

Price has broken the A support low starting the reversal process on this timeframe. We have a B swing low in place, we can now sell up at the 618/786 of this swing, or buy after a BF786 followed a by a bullish cs formation.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to retrace up to the 618/786 of this AB swing, followed by confirming bearish cs formations for short entries. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price to test the BF786 and give us a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Place stop 10 pips below the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits here will be 60-70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 3 MAY 2012

AUD/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup on Aussie yesterday. Price did however reach the 786 late in yesterday’s session.

FOR TODAY:

Price bounced out of the 786 yesterday and came back to test it during the Asian session, seems like we have a bounce out of there again, this could be defined as a DD entry and could be good for a nice rally on this timeframe.

Short trades will only be considered higher up at the BF786, after bearish cs formations.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price reaches the BF786 and gives us a bearish cs formation, this is very far away at present.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Will look to see if UK session gives us another test of the lows followed by a clear bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits here will be 10 pips inside the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 2 MAY 2012

GBP/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup yesterday, price came 2 pips shy of the 786.

FOR TODAY:

We have our A low down at 6152 and the B high at 6300. We can only buy at the 786 after bullish cs formations or sell up at the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally followed by a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to hit the 786 followed by clear bullish cs formations for a long entry setup. Stops will be 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits will be inside the BF.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 2 MAY 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

Price gave us a bearish cs formation at the B high yesterday which we entered short. We are still in that trade setup.

FOR TODAY:

With yesterdays failure at the B high we look for price to continue down today, maybe even after a rally. We won’t be able to add to yesterday's position on a test since it won’t be 50+ pips in the money yet.

Long trade setups are only considered if we get a DD entry at the 618, or if we get a bullish cs formation after price hits the 786.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We will look to get limited out if price falls, we probably won’t be able to add to yesterday's position since it won’t be 50+ pips in the money – our limit on yesterday’s trade is circa 50 pips.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We get to the 618 and price gives us a DD entry, or price falls to the 786 and price gives us a bullish cs formation. Place stop 10 pips below the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 2 MAY 2012

AUD/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup on Aussie yesterday. Price never reached the 786.

FOR TODAY:

We are still looking for price to test the 786 and give us a bullish cs formation before we go long on this pair.

Short trades will only be considered higher up at the BF786, after bearish cs formations.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price reaches the BF786 and gives us a bearish cs formation.  

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We will wait for a test of the 786 followed by a clear bullish cs formation. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits here will be 10 pips inside the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 1 MAY 2012

GBP/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

Did not trade yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

We have our A low down at 6152 and the B high at 6300. We can only buy at the 618/786 after clear bullish cs formations, or sell up at the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally followed by a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to hit the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations for a long entry setup. Stops will be 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits will be 60-70 pips, or inside the BF, whichever comes first.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 1 MAY 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

Did not trade yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

We have an A low down at 3156, with a B up at 3269. We are already in BF786 territory and can sell if we get a clear bearish cs formation. Longs are only considered down at the 618/786 after bullish cs formations.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation from current levels or higher up while still inside the B high. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be at 3200.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get to the 618/786 and price gives us a bullish cs formation.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 1 MAY 2012

AUD/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

Did not trade yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

Price fell overnight past the 618, we are now looking to see if the 786 will offer support for a long entry. Short trades will only be considered higher up at the BF786, which is very far off at present.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price reaches the BF786 and gives us a bearish cs formation.  Not an option for today since its very far up.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Since price fell through the 618 we will wait for a test of the 786 followed by a clear bullish cs formation. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits here will be 10 pips inside the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.