EUR/USD 15 MAY 2012

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No trade setup on Euro yesterday, still waiting for an established B swing low to form.

FOR TODAY:

Price fell yesterday and we are still waiting for a decent B swing low to form, looks like 2813 might become the low, will wait and see in today’s session. Once we have the low we can draw fibs to establish where we have a 618/786 for a short entry. 

Long trades are not yet considered since we don’t have the setup in place for long trades.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We first need a swing low to form, then we need price to retrace up to the 618/786 of this AB swing, followed by confirming bearish cs formations for short entries. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

No long trade setups at present.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 15 MAY 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie yesterday. Price fell then consolidated and it seems we have a new swing B low at 9944.

FOR TODAY:

We will need to wait for a retracement to the 618/786 followed by a bearish cs formation for a short trade set-up.

Long trades are considered on a test of the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price retraces to the 618/786 of this AB swing and gives us a bearish cs formation. Stops are 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Price tests the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation, Stops are 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1%, and limits will be 60-70 pips.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 14 MAY 2012

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No trade setup on Sterling on Friday, price never gave us a decent pullback for a sell entry. Price proceeded to break the B low during the Asian session.

FOR TODAY:

We now have a new AB swing in play, we will need to wait for a pullback to the 618/786 of this swing for a sell entry. We don’t have a clear enough setup for a BF long trade, so will not being looking for long entries.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to rally to the 618/786 of this swing and give us bearish reversal cs formations at either of these fibs. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined at entry.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We will first need a swing high followed by a test of the low by way of a BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. At present we don’t have a clear setup for such a trade.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 14 MAY 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

We exited our long trade on Friday with 5 pips loss -being flat into the weekend.

FOR TODAY:

Price proceeded to take out the B low starting a new AB swing. We now have to wait for a decent B swing low to form before we can do anything further. Once we have that we can draw our fibs and ascertain where we can sell.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We first need a swing low to form, then we need price to retrace up to the 618/786 of this AB swing, followed by confirming bearish cs formations for short entries. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

No long trade setups at present, and probably not in today’s sessions since we need an established B swing low in place, followed by a rally and a test of the BF - We wont trade long without this set-up in place first.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 14 MAY 2012

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We exited the long trade setup on Friday with 14 pips profit- being flat into the weekend. Price fell to parity during the Asian session.

FOR TODAY:

We have a new AB swing in play with price having taken out the 1.0020 low during Asia. We now have to wait for a retracement to the 618/786 for a sell entry, longs are not considered today.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price retraces to the 618/786 of this AB swing and gives us a bearish cs formation. Stops are 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We don’t have an established B swing low in place, so we cannot consider any long trade setups in today’s session.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 11 MAY 2012

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No entry on Sterling yesterday, price came several pips shy of the BF786, and rallied. Price then retraced late in the US session into Asia.

FOR TODAY:

Price found resistance at the 86 yesterday and fell from there. Today will technically be a DA86 trading day where we will look for price to continue down. We will look to sell after a rally and a bearish cs formation -HOWEVER -  We will look to buy if price bounces off the BF786 and gives us a bullish cs formation, this will be good for a rally to the A high up at 6197.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally followed by another bearish cs formation.  This will initiate a short trade setup being a DA86 trading day. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits be down at the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We will need price to test the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Stops are 10 pips below the cs formation; limits in this scenario will be 10 pips inside the A high – 6187.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 11 MAY 2012

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The long trade setup yesterday was stopped out for 43 pips loss during the Asian session. Price is still at the B low area, not having taken it out on a closing basis.

FOR TODAY:

We are still at the BF area, a clear bullish cs formation from current levels will initiate a long trade setup.

A sustained break of the 2910/2900 level will give us a new AB swing.

Shorts are only considered up at the 618/786 of this swing, after confirming cs formations.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to retrace up to the 618/786 of this AB swing, followed by confirming bearish cs formations for short entries. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

Since we are already at the B low, we are looking for a clear bullish cs formation telling us that bthe 2900 level might be holding. Trade this for 60-70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce. Place stop 10 pips below the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 11 MAY 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

Price fell overnight and we are at the B low on this pair. We will look for a bullish cs formation from current levels for a long trade setup.

Else if price breaks the 10020/10000 level on a sustained basis then we will have a new AB swing in the making.

Shorts are only considered mush higher up at the 618/786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price retraces to the 618/786 of this AB swing and gives us a bearish cs formation. Limits defined later, stops are 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Price is at the B low, we will look to buy after a clear bullish cs formation telling us that this level is holding. Stops are placed 10 pips below the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits here will be at 1.0166

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 10 MAY 2012

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The long trade setup on Sterling yesterday was stopped out for 46 pips loss. Price fell and took out the B low giving us a new AB swing, then bounced sharply out of the lows.

FOR TODAY:

We have a new AB swing in play, price has already hit the 618 of the swing, so a clear bearish cs formation can be traded short.

Else long entries are only considered once price hits the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a test of yesterdays cs formation followed by another bearish cs formation.  Else if price rallies higher up we have a 786 at 6169, a bearish reversal here will initiate a short trade setup. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We will need price to test the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Stops are 10 pips below the cs formation. Limits as at time of writing will be at 6159.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 10 MAY 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

The long trade setup yesterday was stopped out for 40 pips loss. Price continued down and took out the B low giving us a new AB swing.

FOR TODAY:

With the new AB swing in play, we can only sell up at the 618/786 of this swing. 

Price already hit the BF786 late in the US session yesterday; a retest of this level followed by a bullish cs formation will initiate a long trade set-up.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to retrace up to the 618/786 of this AB swing, followed by confirming bearish cs formations for short entries. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

Price already hit the BF786 during the late US session, today we will look for a test followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Place stop 10 pips below the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be 60-70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.