GBP/USD 30 NOVEMBER 2011

GBP/USD

No trade setup on GBP yesterday, price rallied and took out the B high confirming the reversal on the 1h chart.

FOR TODAY:

Price has retraced to the 382 of the current AB swing and has gone sideways since. We are looking for a bounce off the 618/786 for a long trade setup, and a bounce off the BF786 for a short trade setup.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price gets up to the BF786 at 5639 and  gives us a bearish cs formation, trade this for 80-100 pips since it’s a shallow prior bounce. Stops above the cs formation.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the 618/786 of this AB swing and price gives us a bullish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 80-100 pips and the 786 will be a ST to the BF786. Stops below the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

For position traders – We still looking for an entry to PT this up to the bigger 618 at 5881 on the daily, depending on entry it could be some 200 pips away. Remember if you do PT this it would be a limit that could be days away.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 30 NOVEMBER 2011

EUR/USD

The bearish entry on Monday lost 1.5% since price rallied yesterday and took out the A high doing the reversal on the 1h chart. We now need  a break of the new B high to confirm the reversal.

FOR TODAY:

Price bounced off the 618 late in yesterday’s session but hasn’t gone anywhere since. We are looking for a test of the 618/786 today and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

Else we can only sell up at the BF786 after a bearish cs formation.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to rally to the BF786 up at 3409 and then we need a bearish cs formation confirming the short trade entry. At the time of writing the prior bounce is a 618, so the limit for this entry will be the 786 lower down, stop above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We are looking for a test of the 618 or the 786 and then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Trade the 618 for 100 pips and the 786 will be ST to the BF786. Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

For Position traders - We have the new AB swing and if we get a long entry setup, we could look at placing the limit for this first trade at a fib on the daily chart and allowing price to run for a couple of days, we have a 618 up at 3851, this could be a decent target for a retracement over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 29 NOVEMBER 2011

GBP/USD

No trade setup on GBP yesterday, price rallied and took out the A high doing a reversal on the 1h chart. We have since fallen back to the 618 of this AB swing.

FOR TODAY:

I don’t really like a spike through the 618 just shy of the 786 like we have on this pair. I prefer a more definite bounce either off the 618 or the 786.Today we will be looking for resumption of the rally to take out the 5593 B high. Will prefer a test of the 786 before we rally but will wait and see what we get.

Short trades are only considered up at the BF786 at 5567 after bearish cs formations.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price gets up to the BF786 at 5567 and gives us a bearish cs formation, trade this down to the 786 since we had a 618 prior bounce. Stops above the cs formation.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We have already bounced during the Asian session, we will look for a test of that level this morning and another bullish cs formation for a long trade setup, if the Asian support holds then we will enter long on that bullish cs formation, else we look for support lower down at the 786 followed by a bullish cs formation.

For position traders - Since this is the first bullish AB swing since price reversed yesterday, we could look to PT this up to the bigger 618 at 5881 on the daily, depending on entry it could be some 300 pips away. Remember if you do PT this it would be a limit that is days away.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 29 NOVEMBER 2011

EUR/USD

Price gave us a bearish cs formation after finding resistance at the 86 yesterday, this entry carries a BF786 limit down at 3261.

FOR TODAY:

Price bounced  during the Asian session and we are looking for a bearish cs formation to short again since today would be a DA86 trading day.

If price carries on rallying and takes out the A high up at 3410 then we will be reversing on this timeframe.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

Since today is a DA86 trading day, we are looking for a bearish cs formation to short down to 3261. We can only add to yesterdays position if we are more than 50 pips up on yesterdays entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get down to the BF786 at 3251 and then get a bullish cs formation. Place stop below the low of the cs formation, limits will be set  10 pips inside the A high since we would have had an 86 prior.

For Position traders -  Once/ If we take out the high at 3410 and start the reversal process on this timeframe and price retraces back into the new AB swing and we get a long entry setup, we could look at placing the limit for this first trade at a fib on the daily chart and allowing price to run for a couple of days, we have a 618 up at 3851, this could be a decent target for a retracement over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 28 NOVEMBER 2011

GBP/USD

No trade setup on GBP Friday. Price gave us the B low were waiting for. Price rallied to the 618 of the AB swing and fell back to the BF786, but it was outside our trading time. This bounce at the BF786 and the 618 prior tells us that price should be heading for the 786 up at 5534.

FOR TODAY:

We can only sell after we hit the 786 and get a bearish cs formation, or buy after we either hit the BF786 and get a bullish cs formation, or if price rallies and takes out the B high up at 5565 we will be reversing on this time frame.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price up at the 786 at 5534 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry. Place stop above the high of the cs formation, limits set at the BF786. This will qualify as a ST.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Place stop below the low of the cs formation, limits will be set at the 786 at time of writing. Change limits accordingly if this changes during the trading day, depending on the prior bounces we get.

EUR/USD 28 NOVEMBER 2011

EUR/USD

No Trade setup on EUR Friday. Price gave us a B low late in the session, but no trade setup.

FOR TODAY:

Price gap opened at Asia last night around the 618 of the AB swing. We now have to wait for a BF786 down at 3239 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup, or a rally and a bearish cs formation  for a short entry, preferably at the 786 at 3368. We are currently just off the 618 but its more sideways action we see here during the Asian session.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We looking for a rally and a bearish cs formation, preferably at the 786 up at 3368. This will be a ST to the BF786 down at 3329, place stop above the high of the bearish cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get down to the BF786 at 3239 and then get a bullish cs formation. Place stop below the low of the cs formation, limits will be set at the 786 up at 3358 – 10 pips inside the 786.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 25 NOVEMBER 2011

GBP/USD

No trade setup on GBP yesterday. Price also fell and took out its B low yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

We now have to wait for a B to form, once we have a B we can draw fibs to identify the 618/786. We can only sell at the 618/786, or buy a BF786, but first we need a B to form.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

After we have a B low, we then need price up at the 618/786 of this AB followed by a bearish cs formation before we can consider short entries. Stops above the cs formations and limits on the 618 is 100 pips, while the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

After the B has formed we need a swing high and then a fall to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation. Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk, and limit will be dependent on the prior bounce of the swing high.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 25 NOVEMBER 2011

EUR/USD

No Trade setup on EUR yesterday. Price fell and took out the B low overnight.

FOR TODAY:

We are now waiting for a new B to form with the A high now up at 3410. Once we have a B we can draw fibs to identify the 618/786. We can only sell at the 618/786, or buy at a BF786. We have neither so we have to wait for the setup to play itself out.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We first need a B to form, then we can draw fibs and find the 618/786 at which to short after bearish cs formations.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We first need a B , then a swing high and a fall to the BF786 and then a bullish sc formation.  Stop below the low of the cs formation, limit dependent on the prior bounce of the swing high.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 24 NOVEMBER 2011

GBP/USD

No trade setup on GBP yesterday. Price also fell and took out its B low, giving us a new B down at 5494, we will keep the A up at 5887 since we don’t have a decent swing high after the 5582 lows.

FOR TODAY:

We now have to wait for either a fall to the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup, or a rally to the 618/786 and a bearish cs formation for a short trade setup.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price up at the 618/786 of this AB followed by a bearish cs formation before we can consider short entries. Stops above the cs formations and limits on the 618 is 100 pips, while the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and then get a bullish cs formation. Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk, and limit will be 80-100pips since we have a shallow bounce, less than a 382 prior.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 24 NOVEMBER 2011

EUR/USD

We traded the bullish cs formation at 06h00GMT yesterday and price reversed and we lost 38 pips on that trade.Price went on to take out the 3420 B low, thus giving us a new AB swing.

FOR TODAY:

We now have an A up at 3613 and the B down at 3319. Price bounced quite hard off the B low during the Asian session. We now have to wait for a BF786 and a bullish sc formation for a Long trade, or a sell up at the 618/786 of this swing.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

Price gets up to the 618/786, and thereafter gives us a bearish cs formation. Limits for the 618 is 100 pips and the 786 is a ST to the BF786. Stops above the cs formations, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price to fall down to the BF786 and then give us a bullish sc formation. Trade the limit for 80-100 pips since it’s a shallow bounce at time of writing. Stops below the low, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.