EUR/USD DAILY FORECAST 31 MAY 2011

EUR/USD

Price has finally taken out the A high doing the start of a reversal process to push higher. We barely have a B high in place at present to draw fibs on. This is a big AB swing, with the 618/786 very far away at present.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 to short, we barely have a B, will wait to see if we get a test of the Asia high during the day. If we get a test and a bearish cs formation we might go short.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade. That’s a long way off for now.

GBP/USD DAILY FORECAST 31 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

Price has taken out the B high during Asia, giving us a new AB swing again. We don’t have a B high yet so we can’t draw fibs yet, so no trade on GBP for now. We need a B, then a pullback to the 618 for a buy after a bullish cs formation.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a BF786 and a bearish cs formation, but since a B is not formed yet, that’s not going to happen in this session.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation. Trade this for 60 pips if it’s a 618, and PT for a 786.

GBP/USD DAILY FORECAST 30 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

We have a B high and we will now wait for either a pullback to the 618 and a bullish cs formation, or a BF786  and a bearish cs formation for a short trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a BF786 and a bearish cs formation. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation, that’s  100+pips away. Trade this for 60 pips if it’s a 618, and PT for a 786.

EUR/USD DAILY FORECAST 30 MAY 2011

EUR/USD

We are still in the bearish AB swing, currently at the 86/AHIGH, sell territory, price has fallen back since rallying shy of the A high up at 4344. We have had a series of dips inside this AB swing telling us that it’s heading for the high up at 4344. If we get a test of the high and a bearish cs, trade it short but be weary of bounces.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after a rally. Trade this for a PT to the BF786 since it’s an 86/A HIGH, but as mentioned above, be weary of bounces, exit short trade on a strong bounce since price has been well supported on dips here.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get another dip lower and a bounce, since price is so well supported, buy dips to 4344.

EUR/USD DAILY FORECAST 27 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the bearish AB swing, currently at the 786, sell territory, but looking at this chart, we expect price to keep rallying and take out the A high up at 4344. We have had a series of dips inside this AB swing telling us that it’s heading for the high up at 4344. If we get a strong bearish cs, trade it short but be weary of bounces.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a bearish cs formation at current levels or higher up. Trade this for a PT since it’s a 786, but as mentioned above, be weary of bounces, exit short trade on a strong bounce since price has been well supported on dips here.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get another dip lower, since price is so well supported, buy dips to 4344.

GBP/USD DAILY FORECAST 27 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

Price has rallied sharply over the last 2 days, we have hourly support at 6274, we need a B high to form still before we can draw fibs. So for now there are no trades on GBP.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No trade at present, waiting for a B to form.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Need  a B to form first.

GBP/USD DAILY FORECAST 26 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

Price rallied yesterday and took out the A high starting a reversal process. We have a B, now we have to wait for a 618/786 to buy, or a BF786 to sell.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a BF786 and a bearish cs formation after that. Trade it for 60 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get to the 618, after a bullish cs formation. Trade for 60 pips limit, else lower down at the 786, where it will be a PT.

EUR/USD DAILY FORECAST 26 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the bearish AB swing, currently at the 50, if we get a bullish cs at the BF786 we will long, else shorts only up at the 618/786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get to the 618 and get a bearish cs formation. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a 618, else higher at the 786, this will be a PT.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation before we can look for long trades.

GBP/USD DAILY FORECAST 25 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

Price found resistance at the 618 yesterday. If we get another test of that level today with a bearish cs formation we will short that trade for a 60 pip limit. Else if we rally we will look for a bearish cs at the 786 higher up.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a test of the 618 and a bearish cs formation. Else higher up at the 786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and get a bullish cs formation, this will become a PT with limits at the C786 since it’s a 618 prior.

EUR/USD DAILY FORECAST 25 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the bearish AB swing, bounced at the 382 yesterday, if we get a bullish cs at the BF786 we will long, else shorts only up at the 618/786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get to the 618 and get a bearish cs formation. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a 618, else higher at the 786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation before we can look for long trades.

GBP/USD DAILY FORECAST 24 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

After the bearish cs at the A high on Friday night price fell accordingly to the D extension. We now have a new AB swing in play, we have to wait for a BF786 and a bullish cs to buy, or a sell up at the 618/786.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the 618/786 and get a bearish cs formation, the 618 will limit out at 60 pips and the 786 at the BF786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and get a bullish cs formation, this will have a limit of 60 pips since its less than a 382 bounce.

EUR/USD DAILY FORECAST 24 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are in a new AB downswing on EUR, price fell after the cs formation at the A high on Friday and ran to the D extension. We now have a new AB swing. We have to wait for a BF786 and a bullish cs to buy, or a sell up at the 618/786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get to the 618 and get a bearish cs formation. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a 618.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation before we can look for long trades.

AUD/USD 20 MAY 2011 11AM GMT

Price also has a nice evening star formation on AUD/USD 1H Chart. Place forward order at 664, stop above the high, limit at BF786 PT.

GBP/USD UPDATE 11H00 GMT

Exit long at break even, price made a bearish cs formation after hitting 786.

Sell GBP, Limit set at BF786 PT, Stop above the high.

EUR/USD UPDATE 11AM GMT

Place Forward Order to sell  EUR at 4307, stop above the high, limit set at the BF786.

GBP/USD UPDATE 08H00 GMT

Counter cs on GBP aswell, buy GBP with stop below cs, target 60 pips

EUR/USD UPDATE 08H00 GMT

Buy EUR/USD, Stop below cs, target 60pips

EUR/USD UPDATE

Sell EUR/USD, stop above the high, limit BF786.

GBP/USD UPDATE TRADE

Sell GBP , stop above the cs high, limit PT dow to BF786.

GBP/USD FORECAST FOR 20 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the bearish AB swing on Sterling; price is currently at the 618, which is sell territory. We will sell a bearish cs formation, but would prefer a sell after hitting the 786 first. Will wait to see what we get.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation, either at current levels, or higher at the 786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786- currently at 6134 and get a bullish cs formation, this will have a limit at the 786 since we would have had a 618 bounce. But we are far away from that setup, if at all.

EUR/USD FORECAST 20 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the AB downswing since we took out the A low on Friday; as mentioned in the update yesterday, we closed our trade with a 4 pip loss because price made a bullish base at the previous days lows which told us that it was heading higher.re. We are still in the sell territory, and if we get a bearish cs formation inside the A boundary, that is inside the 4338 high, we must short that cs formation down to the BF786, it will be a PT. ONLY IF WE GET A BEARISH CS.

Long trades are only considered once the A high is broken, we have to wait for a B to form then pull fibs all over again – but that’s a few hours away.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a bearish cs formation at current levels while we are inside the A high. This will be a PT down to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation before we can look for long trades. Else price must take out the A high and reverse, give us a B, then wait for a pullback, still some time away if it happens.

UPDATE EUR/USD TRADE

Exit short EUR position, price came down to yesterdays lows and bounced up strongly, we now expect it to rally up and take out the A high. Stand aside for now. Exiting with 4 pips loss on trade.

EUR/USD UPDATE

Eur closed with an evening star on the 1h chart. We have gone short with stop above the cs high. Target  BF786, Remember this is a PT.

GBP/USD FORECAST FOR 19 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

Sterling has formed a new AB swing by taking out the B low yesterday and running to the 118 D extension. We are now at the 382 of the downswing, we can only sell at the 618/786, or buy at the BF786 after cs formations.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the 618/786 and get a bearish cs formation, the 618 will limit out at 60 pips and the 786 at the BF786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and get a bullish cs formation, this will have a limit of 60 pips since its only a 382 bounce.

EUR/USD FORECAST 19 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the AB downswing since we took out the A low on Friday; we were stopped out of our short trade we entered into yesterday, so we lost 30 pips there. We are still in the sell territory, and if we get a bearish cs formation inside the A boundary, that is inside the 4338 high, we must short that cs formation down to the BF786, it will be a PT. ONLY IF WE GET A BEARISH CS.

Long trades are only considered once the A high is broken, we have to wait for a B to form then pull fibs all over again – but that’s a few hours away.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a bearish cs formation at current levels since we already hit the 86. This will be a PT down to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation before we can look for long trades. Else price must take out the A high and reverse, give us a B, then wait for a pullback, still some time away if it happens.

GBP/USD UPDATE TRADE

GBP had an entry at 07h00 GMT at 6250 after the evening star formation. Price fell down to the BF786 at 6180, limited us out at 70 pips profit.

GBP/USD DAILY FORECAST 18 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the bear AB swing on Cable, we are currently at the 786 of the swing. If we get a bearish cs here, or slightly higher up but still inside the A, we will look to short down to the BF786. Alternatively if a price continues to rally, we will have to wait for the A to get taken out, and then wait for a new B to form and pull fibs.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation at current levels or higher up inside the AB swing, this will constitute a short trade setup with limits down at the BF786, hence a PT setup.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price way down at the BF786 before we can look for long trades. Else if price takes out the A high we will be reversing, and then we will wait for a new B to form, then pull fibs.

EUR/USD DAILY FORECAST 18 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the AB downswing since we took out the A low on Friday, price is currently at the 786 of the swing, if we get a bearish cs formation here we will short. The limit will be at the BF786 and it will be a PT. If price continues up and takes out the A high we will be reversing.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a bearish cs formation at current levels since we already hit the 786. This will be a PT down to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation before we can look for long trades. Else price must take out the A high and reverse, give us a B, then wait for a pullback, still some time away if it happens.

GBP/USD FORECAST FOR 17 MAY 2011

Abbreviations

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

Price gave us a bullish cs formation after hitting the BF786 yesterday and rallied, but didn’t hit our 60 pip target yet, so we are still in that trade setup. Price also hit our 618 of the downswing and fell back a bit. We still expect price to rally further and will stay in our current trade until the limit or the stop is hit. We have another BF786 down at 6169 and if we hit this level and get a bullish cs formation afterwards, we will be in that trade until the 786- 6284 is reached, because we had a 618 before the BF786, price will then head for the 786-6284.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation either at the 618 or the 786. The 618 will constitute a DD entry, which will be good for a 100 pip fall, and the 786 will be good to the C786. Both will be PT’s.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a bullish cs formation after hitting the BF786 -6169. This will be a PT to the 786.

EUR/USD FORECAST FOR 17 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are still in the AB downswing since we took out the A low on Friday, price bounced off the 618 late in the US session and has fallen, there is a BF786 at 4089, if we hit this level and get a bullish cs formation we will PT it for the 786, alternatively, if we test the 618 today and get a bearish cs formation that will be good for a 50 pip limit. Rallying to the 786 and getting a bearish cs formation will constitute a short PT to the BF786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need either a test of the 618-4227 followed by a bearish cs formation, or we need price to hit the 786-4276 and a bearish cs formation, the latter will be a PT to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price to drop and hit the BF786-4089 and thereafter give us a bullish cs formation for a long trade. This will constitute a PT to the 786 since we already had a 618 bounce prior.

GBP/USD FORECAST FOR 16 MAY 2011

ABBREVIATIONS

cs – Candle stick

PT – Position Trade

BF – B Failure

C786 – Counter 786

GBP/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are in a new AB downswing wth the A at 6320 and the B at 6146. We need to wait for a BF786 to buy, and a 618/786 to sell.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get up to the 618-6294/786-6284 areas, and thereafter get bearish cs formations.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a bullish cs formation after hitting the BF786 -6161.

EUR/USD FORECAST FOR 16 MAY 2011

EUR/USD – HOURLY CHART

We are in a new AB downswing since we took out the A low on Friday, we now have to wait for a BF786 and a bullish cs formation to buy, or a 618/786 higher up and a bearish cs to sell.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price up at the 618-4227 / 786-4276 price area and a bearish cs formation for short trades.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We need price to drop and hit the BF786 and thereafter give us a bullish cs formation for a long trade. If this happens we will limit out at 60 pips profit since its less than a 382 bounce.

THE DAY THAT WAS

EUR/USD
Price gave us a bullish candlestick in UK session, but this failed and we lost 50 pips, a few hours later and we took out the A high doing a small reversal pattern. We will look to buy dips from tomorrow, as this might be a sign that we in for a deeper correction towards 4500.

GBP/USD
Sterling never gave us an entry signal, price just fell and gave us a new B low. we will also look to buy dips here, maybe even a BF786 in tomorrow's session, looking for price to head towards the 6550 area over the coming days. Buy dips to that price level.

AUD/USD
Gave us a nice BF86 today, this is a leading signal that price is heading towards 1.0900 over coming days, buy dips to that level. Entry was at 1.0602 and profit targets at 1.0900.

AUD/USD

Price on AUD hourly chart has just formed a morning star formation at the BF86 level. This signals that price is heading deeper into the bigger swing, probably back towards 1.0900 over coming days. Buy dips towards 1.0900 until it is reached. This will be a position trade. Might even be a leading indicator for GBP nad EUR indicating pullbacks over coming days.

EUR/USD FORECAST FOR 12 MAY 2011

EUR/USD - Hourly Chart

We have formed a new bearish AB swing yesterday by taking out the B low at 4253. We now have to wait for either a BF786 to buy, or a sell up at the 618 -4326 / 786-4368.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price up at the 618/786 and a bearish candlestick formation for short trades.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We hit the BF786-4184 and get a bullish candlestick formation. Since it’s less than a 382 bounce, we will limit out at the 50 pip level.

THE DAY THAT WAS

EUR/USD

Price gave us an 86 Fibonacci bounce in UK session and the pressure has remained to the downside taking out the B low and completing the D extension at the 118 fib extension. We now have a new AB swing in play and we have to wait for a new B to form, then a pullback to the 618/786 for an entry short.

GBP/USD

Sterling rallied to the 50 Fibonacci level at 6507. We now have to wait for a bearish candlestick, which we actually already have, for a short trade opportunity.  Price has fallen quite a bit during the US session.We will wait for the UK session to resume to see whether we get a test of that level for an entry short.