EUR/USD 28 FEBRUARY 2013

Price retraced yesterday and we currently at the level of PS/R. We are still waiting for a retracement to the 618 of this swing where we will look for a short trade setup. A fall from current levels will not initiate a short; we need the 618 to get hit. We need to remain below 3318 to maintain downtrend.

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Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

We need a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups.  Only a break of 3318 negates this view and opens the upside.

GBP/USD 28 FEBRUARY 2013

Price gave us the long entry we were looking for yesterday at 5114, today is a DABF trading day where we are looking for price to extend gains, maybe after a minor 618 retracement before continuing up. Look to add to the position only if current trade is 50+ pips in the money. Limits for current trade can either be kept at 5250, or 100 pips. If we get a new long trade setup then watch out for bearish cs formations circa 786/86, if resistance proves to be strong then exit long trades and reverse. Remember we are expecting to find resistance at 5267.

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Will be going long if:

We will wait for a minor 618 for a long trade entry, only add to the position if the current trade is 50+ pips in the money.

Will be going short if:

The bounce yesterday leads us to believe that price is heading to 5267 over coming sessions. We are expecting to find resistance at this level so we will be looking for short entries here. If however we get a DD entry at the 618 highs then we will consider that a short entry, and exit the current long trade.

AUD/USD 28 FEBRUARY 2013

Price rallied, holding at the B low that was established yesterday. Price is currently at the 50 of this current swing. Here we are also looking for the 618/786 to offer up resistance. Only a sustained break of 1.0374 starts a reversal on this pair, while below we look to sell against this.

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Will be going long if:

No immediate long trade setups since we have no criteria in place. Stand aside.

Will be going short if:

No trade setups at present, we need price higher at the 618/786 where we will look for signs of reversal. 

EUR/USD 27 FEBRUARY 2013

Price is still hovering around the B low, although it is a confirmed B low, it is not a swing low as yet. We are still waiting for a retracement on this pair. For now we have no trade setup, if price falls from current levels we stand aside as it’s not a system trade. We continue to wait patiently for a setup.

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Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

We have a B , now we need a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups. 

GBP/USD 27 FEBRUARY 2013

Price found resistance shy of the 618 and fell to the B low where it is currently (07H15 GMT) Failure at this level will have price rallying towards 5250 over coming sessions. We will wait for a setup to develop for a long entry. Else if the B low is violated on a closing basis then we will have a new swing in play.

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Will be going long if:

We get a clear bullish cs formation from current levels or while inside 5072.

Will be going short if:

We are looking for a retracement up to the 618/786 for a short trade setup. A sustained break of 5320 negates this view and opens the upside.

AUD/USD 27 FEBRUARY 2013

 

Price fell yesterday and stopped out the long trade with 35 pips, taking out the low and continuing the downtrend. We now wait for a clear swing low to form, then a retracement.  For now we have no trade setups on this pair.

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Will be going long if:

No immediate long trade setups since we have no criteria in place. Stand aside.

Will be going short if:

No trade setups at present, stand aside. 

EUR/USD 26 FEBRUARY 2013

As per yesterday’s analysis,  price rallied a few pips shy of the 618 on the 4h chart yesterday where it found resistance and gave us a huge bearish cs formation on the 1h chart. The stop was too big to take the trade, hence no post for a short trade opportunity. The market did what we were waiting for, but according to our entry rules we couldn’t take the short trade. Price went on to break the B low giving us a new AB swing in play, although we have to wait for a new B to form. So there will be no trade setups on this chart for today’s session.

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Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

We first need a B to form, then  we need a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups. 

GBP/USD 26 FEBRUARY 2013

Price seemed to have found support yesterday giving us the B swing low we were waiting for. The retracement is currently just shy of the 618, where we will be looking for signs of resistance on the 1h chart. A sustained break of 5320 starts a reversal on this time frame. 

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Will be going long if:

No long setups at present according to the system. We are in a downtrend. Stand aside and wait for an entry to present itself.

Will be going short if:

We are looking for a retracement up to the 618/786 for a short trade setup. A sustained break of 5320 negates this view and opens the upside.

AUD/USD 26 FEBRUARY 2013

Price found resistance at Fridays highs as per yesterday’s post, we needed something clearer to give us direction, by taking out yesterday’s lows we now have a clearer setup. We now looking for the A low to get taken out with price continuing the downtrend. Look to sell rallies after bearish cs formations with A low as targets.

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Will be going long if:

No immediate long trade setups. Since we had failure circa BF, we are expecting 1.0220 to get violated today. ONLY a really strong clear bounce out of the 1.0220 area will have us looking to the upside.

Will be going short if:

Price gave us a bearish cs formation at Friday’s highs (we didn’t take it because of the conflicting areas mentioned yesterday). We now look for price to fall and violate 1.0220. Sell rallies against yesterday’s highs followed by clear bearish cs formations for 1.0220. 

EUR/USD 25 FEBRUARY 2013

Price printed a new low on Friday giving us a new B swing low, we are still waiting for a retracement up to the 618/786 of this swing where we will be looking for a short entry. We remain in this downtrend until 3433 is violated on a closing basis. We also have PS/R at that level. Note that the daily chart has found support at the 786, so there is room for price to rally from this point - keep this in mind for the week ahead.

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Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

With the new B low, we still waiting for a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups. A sustained break of 3433 negates this view and opens the upside.

GBP/USD 25 FEBRUARY 2013

Price gave us a B low last Thursday, bounced up on Friday, only to gap open last night giving us a new low, although not a B low as yet. We will use this recent swing high as the point of reversal should it be violated. Once the B low is confirmed we will wait for a retracement up to the 618/786 of this swing where we will look for signs of reversal. A sustained break of 5320 opens the upside and starts a reversal on this time frame.

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Will be going long if:

No long setups at present according to the system. We are in a downtrend. Stand aside and wait for an entry to present itself.

Will be going short if:

No immediate short trade setups, we need a retracement up to the 618/786 for a short trade setup. A sustained break of 5320 negates this view and opens the upside.

AUD/USD 25 FEBRUARY 2013

Price rallied off the lows on Friday to limit-out at 80 pips profit. The Asian session also gap opened last night. We have a bit of conflict here as we have price falling from the BF area, and we are at the area of a minor 618 support, we don’t however have a clear bounce on the 1h chart at present. We continue to monitor this setup as a test followed by another bullish cs formation will initiate a long trade setup, and a test of Friday’s highs followed by a bearish cs formation on the 1h chart initiates a short trade setup. The fall from the BF area tells us that price might be heading for 1.0220 which continues the downtrend. We continue to wait for a clearer sign.

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Will be going long if:

We are looking for a test of the overnight low followed by another bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

Will be going short if:

We will trade a short on a test of Fridays high followed by a clear bearish cs formation. This will tell us that the 1.0220 lows are being targeted.

EUR/USD 22 FEBRUARY 2013

Price seemed to have given us a B low on this time frame  However we still need to wait for a retracement up to the 618/786 of this swing for a short entry. Circa 618 we also have PS/R level, let’s see if we find resistance at that level for a short entry. Reversals are only considered on a break of 3433. No likely trade setups in this session as per the system.

Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

We just about have a B low, we still need a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups.

GBP/USD 22 FEBRUARY 2013

We have a B swing low in place, this is clear. We still looking for a retracement to the 618/786 where we will look for short trade setups. A fall from current levels will not initiate a short trade setup. No immediate setups here.

Will be going long if:

No long setups at present according to the system. Stand aside and wait for an entry to present itself.

Will be going short if:

No immediate short trade setups, we need a retracement up to the 618/786 for a short trade setup.

AUD/USD 22 FEBRUARY 2013

Price found support yesterday and rallied off the A lows. We posted a long entry yesterday morning, with limits at 1.0344 (error in post of 1.0244). That trade entry is still open, currently 60 pips profit at time of writing (06h20 GMT), change limit to 1.0334, with stops at cost now. We are looking for price to rally towards 1.0375, a break of which starts the uptrend with a base down at 1.0225. A sustained break of 1.0225 continues the downtrend.

Will be going long if:

We can add to yesterday’s long position on minor 618 bounces, provided the current position is 50+ pips in the money.

Will be going short if:

No short entries from current levels. We will wait for a bearish cs formation if it presents itself after a BF786 print. 

EUR/USD 21 FEBRUARY 2013

Price did find resistance just shy of the 618 yesterday;  we exited our long position as per the post, we were waiting for the 618 to get hit before looking for a short entry. Price continued down and broke the B low giving us a new A swing high, we are waiting for a B swing low to form. There will be no trade setups today as per the system since we first have to wait for a B low, then a retracement back to the 618/786. Shorts from current levels are not considered.

We have reached our monthly target for February.

Will be going long if:

No long setup at present as confidence is low. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

Once again we will have to wait for a B low to form, then a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups.

GBP/USD 21 FEBRUARY 2012

Price continued to print lower lows, there has not been any entries on this pair as we have not had any retracement as yet. This might have been the final wave of the decline before we see price retracing. We will be patient and wait for a setup to present itself. Stand aside for now.

We have reached our monthly target for February.

Will be going long if:

No long setups at present according to the system. Stand aside and wait for an entry to present itself.

Will be going short if:

No immediate short trade setups, we first need a B swing low to form, the a retracement up to the 618/786 for a short trade setup.

AUD/USD 21 FEBRUARY 2013

As per post yesterday, we exited the long position and reversed with the bearish confirmation at the BF86. This cs formation gave us heads up that price was going to fall down to the 1.0259 area. We now have to wait to see if price takes out the A low and resumes the downtrend, or if the low holds and price rallies to take out the B high. The short trade was exited as per the post as well. 

We have reached our monthly target for February.

  

Will be going long if:

Price is currently at the A low area. We need to wait for bullish confirmation that the low is likely to hold. A bullish cs formation will provide this confirmation for a long entry. Keep stops tight. If we do get the long entry, limits will be 100 pips or the BF, whichever comes first. As per the time of writing (06h00 GMT), we have a bullish cs formation on the 1h chart which qualifies as a long entry. Stop below the low, max 1% risk - Limits 1.0244.

Will be going short if:

No short entries from current levels. We will wait for a bearish cs formation if it presents itself after a BF786 print. Probably not in today’s session.

EUR/USD 20 FEBRUARY 2013

Price rallied yesterday starting a retracement, so far just shy of the 618, we will wait to see if the 618 holds as resistance, or if the 786 higher up keeps the downtrend in place. Reversal starts once price violates the A high on a closing basis. A fall from resistance and a break of the B low continues the downtrend.

Will be going long if:

We are already long for the following reasons – we are at an area of PR/S on the daily, we have 86 fib support on the 4h AB, we had a bullish cs formation on the 1h chart on Friday with a test and a bullish cs again yesterday. Stop is below the cs, limits at 100 pips. I won’t be adding to any longs until the A high gets violated, followed by a retracement down to a fib entry.

Will be going short if:

We will wait for a retracement to the 618/786/BF786 of the bigger swing, before we initiate any short trade setups. 

GBP/USD 20 FEBRUARY 2013

Price once again printed a lower low yesterday, we continue to wait for a B swing low to form, we remain side-lined until we get a retracement to the 618/786 of the swing for a short trade setup. Reversals are only considered on a break of the A up at 5689 If price continues to fall we have no setup.

Will be going long if:

No long setups at present according to the system. Stand aside and wait for an entry to present itself.

Will be going short if:

No immediate short trade setups, we need price up at the 618/786 for a short trade setup.

AUD/USD 20 FEBRUARY 2013

Price rallied yesterday and its currently circa the B high, we need the 375 level to break to open the upside. We have limits just past the B high, will monitor for resistance inside the B high and maybe an exit. A break of the B high confirms the reversal. Only a sustained break of the A low continues the downtrend.

Will be going long if:

Today is another DA618 trading day where we look for price to rally towards 375, we cannot rule out any dips before price rallies. We only add to the open position if we get a minor 618 retracement after a break of 375.

Will be going short if:

We are in BF territory, a clear bearish cs formation from current levels will have us exit the long and enter a short trade setup. Will monitor price at this level.

AUD/USD 19 FEBRUARY 2013

18^th – Aussie retraced to the 618 as per Fridays analysis, we are now looking for a bullish cs formation to enter the market. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, limits will be 100 pips. If support at the 618 is not found then we look for the 786 to hold. Else a sustained break of 227 continues the downtrend.

19^th – Price gave us the bounce out of the 618 yesterday by way of a bullish cs formation on the 1h chart. We have entered the trade, with stops below the low of the cs formation, limits set at 100 pips. We need a break of 375 to open the upside. We will add to the open position on 618 minor bounces, only if the open position is 50+ pips in the money. Else a fall and a sustained break of 227 resumes the downtrend.

LONG: Will be going long IF:

Today is a DA618 trading day where we look for price to rally towards 375, we cannot rule out any dips before price rallies. We only add to the open position if we get a minor 618 retracement after a break of 375.

SHORT: Will be going short IF:

With the break of the A high we have a reversal in play here, so we are not looking for short trade setups, we need a sustained break of the A low to resume the downtrend.

GBP/USD 19 FEBRUARY 2013

Price printed another low yesterday and seemed to have bounced back up to enter a range. We now have a new B low in place again. We are waiting for a retracement up to the 618/786 of this swing where we will look for signs of a reversal. If we don’t find resistance at the 618/786 and price violates the A high, then we will have the start of a reversal on this time-frame.

LONG: Will be going long IF:

No long setups at present according to the system. Stand aside and wait for an entry to present itself.

SHORT: Will be going short IF:

No immediate short trade setups, we need price up at the 618/786 for a short trade setup.

EUR/USD 19 FEBRUARY 2013

18^th – Price printed a slightly lower B low on Friday and bounced but failed to continue the rally. We are still in the same price area. We need to wait for a retracement up to the 618/786 of this swing for a short trade setup. Else a fall and a break of 3305 will likely open the downside towards the 3256 lows, thereby starting a bigger reversal.

19^th- Not much change to yesterday’s chart. Price has pretty much gone sideways with the US holiday yesterday. We are still looking for price to retrace to the 618/786 of this swing where we will be looking for resistance and a short trade entry. Else if we don’t get a reversal and price rallies up to violate the A high at 3520, then we’ll be looking at a reversal on this time-frame  We have an 86 bounce of the bigger swing, where we have a long trade setup with limits set at 100 pips.

LONG: Will be going long IF:

We are long for the following reasons – we are at an area of PR/S on the daily, we have 86 fib support on the 4h AB, we had a bullish cs formation on the 1h chart on Friday with a test and a bullish cs again yesterday. Stop is below the cs, limits at 100 pips.

SHORT: Will be going short IF:

We will wait for a retracement to the 618/786/BF786 of the bigger swing, before we initiate any short trade setups.