GBP/USD 30 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup yesterday. Price rallied late in the day yesterday and during Asia.

FOR TODAY:

We are virtually at the 6000 highs, we need a sustained break here to continue up and start the reversal on this time-frame. 

A bearish cs formation from current levels or failure at 6000 again will signal a short entry.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation from current levels, or a failure around 6000. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a retracement followed by a clear bullish cs formation. This will be a sign that the bulls are heading for 6000 highs, place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 30 MARCH 2012

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No short trade setup yesterday, price fell but didn’t give us a clear enough rally first. Price bounced off the 50 and rallied during Asia.

FOR TODAY:

Price is currently at the BF86 area, a bearish cs formation from current levels while inside the 3384 will be a sell entry.

A rally and a sustained break of 3384 negates this view giving us resumption of uptrend with a new AB swing forming.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a bearish cs formation from current levels or higher while inside the 3384 high for a short entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be at 3242 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will go long if price reaches circa 3280 or yesterday’s lows and gives us a bullish cs formation, this will be a DD entry and will be god for a 100 pip rally.

Else if that support doesn’t hold the we need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 30 MARCH 2012

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The long entry yesterday lost 24 pips with price taking out the 1.0335 low giving us a new AB swing. Price bounced sharply off the 1.0303 low.

FOR TODAY:

We are at the 382 of the new AB swing. We need price at the BF786 for a long trade setup, or up at the 618/786 for a short trade set-up. So no immediate entries for today.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No short setups on this pair at present.  We need price up at the 618/786 for a short setup.

If something materializes I will post on stocktwits.com/fxg.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Will post on stocktwits if it materializes.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 29 MARCH 2012

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We exited our short trade yesterday with 115 pips profit, price bounced out of 5841 and rallied since.

FOR TODAY:

Today we will have to see if the resistance or support level holds, the bounce out of 5841 is also a 786 of the last interim swing, this might have been the dip the bulls were looking for before rallying to violate the 1.6000 high.

A sustained break above 1.6000 starts a reversal on this timeframe.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a test of 5939/66 followed by a bearish cs formation. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a dip followed by a clear bullish cs formation. This will be a sign that the bulls are heading for 1.6000 highs, place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 29 MARCH 2012

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Price gave us the bearish cs formation after hitting the BF786 and we entered a short trade setup and closed with 57 pips profit. Price then bounced off the 382 late in the session and consolidated during Asia.

FOR TODAY:

With today being a DABF786 trading day, we will look to sell after a rally and a bearish cs formation.

Else if price falls and find support at yesterday’s lows then we will have a DD entry which will be good for 100 pips.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to rally followed by a bearish cs formation, or a test of yesterdays high followed by a bearish cs formation for a short entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be 70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will go long if price reaches yesterday’s lows and gives us a bullish cs formation, this will be a DD entry and will be god for a 100 pip rally.

Else if that support doesn't hold then we need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 29 MARCH 2012

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No trade set-up on Aussie yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

Price is at the B low of this AB swing, if we get a bounce out of current levels it will qualify as a long trade set-up.

Else a sustained break of the 1.0335 lows will continue the bearish trend on this time-frame giving us a new B low and thus a new AB swing.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No short setups on this pair at present. If something materializes I will post on stocktwits.com/fxg.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a clear bullish cs formation from current levels or while inside the 1.0335 lows. Limits on this trade will be at 1.0562 over coming sessions being a ST. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 28 MARCH 2012

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We went short yesterday on the failure at 5991, the break was not sustained and price remained below the 5991 highs as can be seen on the 4h chart - its the same swing as the 1h chart, just easier to fit on the screen.

FOR TODAY:

Today will be a DA86 trading day where we expect price to continue down, maybe even test yesterday’s highs before resuming the fall. We will look to add to open positions only if current position is 50+ pips in the money. We will look to sell after a rally and bearish cs formation.

A sustained break above 6000 negates this view and starts a reversal on this timeframe.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a test of yesterday’s highs followed by a bearish cs formation. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a dip followed by a clear bullish cs formation. This will be a sign that the bulls are heading for 5991 highs, place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 28 MARCH 2012

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No trade set-up on Euro yesterday, price rallied and fell back inside the A high, giving us a new A–swing-high at 3384.

FOR TODAY:

We now have a decent swing high at 3384, so today we can look for a test of the BF786 followed by a bearish cs formation for a sell entry, or we can only buy lower down at the 618/786 of this swing.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to rally and test the BF786 followed by a bearish cs formation for a short entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be 70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 28 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup yesterday on Aussie yesterday. Price never reached the 786.

FOR TODAY:

Today will be a DA618 trading day where we are looking for price to continue down. We will look to sell after a rally and a bearish cs formation.

We will buy if price hits the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally followed by a clear bearish cs formation. Limits will be at the BF786. Stops will be 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to fall to the BF786 followed by a clear bullish cs formation. Limits on this trade will be defined at time of entry. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 27 MARCH 2012

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We went short yesterday on the bearish cs formation and lost 23 pips on that trade when we exited after the strong bullish cs. We didn’t enter long immediately since the stop was too big.

FOR TODAY:

Price went on to rally past the 5922 interim high but still needs to clear and hold above the 5991 highs. A violation of the 5991 highs will start a reversal on this timeframe. We are therefore still in sell territory at present until 5991 is taken out, BUT we will use dips followed by bullish cs formations to target 5991.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation inside the 5991 highs, this failure will push price lower, even if it’s only for a dip. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a dip followed by a clear bullish cs formation. This will be a sign that the bulls are heading for 5991 highs, place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined if set-up occurs.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 27 MARCH 2012

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We exited our short trade setup yesterday with 17 pips profit when price bounced in the UK session. We reversed and went long and exited that position with 76 pips profit.

FOR TODAY:

We now have a new AB swing, we don’t have a clear B- swing-high  as yet but we do have a B high. Will wait and see this morning if that remains as the high or if price rallies from here.

We can only buy lower down at the 618/786 of this swing, or sell a BF786 for which there is no setup for at present.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

No short trade setup currently on this chart. If something materializes it will be posted on www.stocktwits.com/fxg, and twitter.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 27 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup yesterday on Aussie yesterday. Price rallied past the 618.

FOR TODAY:

When price rallies like it did yesterday and runs past the 618 then I prefer the 786 as the next selling area. Will wait for price to test the 786 and then give us a bearish cs formation for a short trade set-up, unless we get clear failure at the highs again.

Long trades will be considered on dips followed by bullish cs formations.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need a retracement to the 786 or higher followed by a clear bearish cs formation. Limits for this entry will be at the BF786 over coming sessions. Stops will be 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip followed by a clear bullish cs formation. This might be a sign that the bulls are targeting the A high. Limits on this trade will be defined at time of entry. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 26 MARCH 2012

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Price gave us a bearish cs formation on Friday, we went short, but exited on the test since we didn’t want an open position for the weekend with price either at our entry price, or against us since we never know where price opens after the weekend.

FOR TODAY:

We are still of the opinion that price is heading lower; we look to re-establish short trades on tests after bearish cs formations.

A violation of the 5991 highs will start a reversal on this timeframe.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation after testing the 5908/22 highs. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a test of the 5769 lows followed by a clear bullish cs formation. This will be a sign that the 5769 price area is holding and will be good for a long trade setup, stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 26 MARCH 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

Euro failed at the highs on Friday and gave us a bearish cs formation, we didn’t take the trade because the stop was too big and then the test was late in the session before the weekend close. Price is back in that same area now.

FOR TODAY:

During Asia price tested the highs and gave us an evening star indicating that price is heading lower. We have entered short on that bearish cs formation.

A violation of the 3292 highs will open the upside for this pair and resume higher highs and lows.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We have entered short for a fall down to the BF786. Placed stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be down at 3180.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will need price to fall to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 26 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup yesterday on Aussie yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

We are in no man’s land on Aussie today, we need price up at the 618/786 followed by a bearish cs formation for a short entry, or down at the  BF786 for a long entry, price found resistance at the 50 of the downswing – according to our system we have no trade setups in this area.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need a retracement to the 618/786 followed by a bearish cs formation at either of those levels. Limits will be defined at time of entry. Stops will be 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to test the BF786 followed by a clear bullish cs formation. Limits on this entry will be defined at time of entry. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 23 MARCH 2012

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Price gave us a bearish cs formation yesterday but I didn’t add to the open position since it was not 50+ pips in the money yet. Price continued down and I exited that trade for 40 pips profit as per stocktwits post/twitter.

FOR TODAY:

We are still of the opinion that price is heading lower; we look to re-establish short trades higher up after bearish cs formations.

A violation of the 5991 highs will start a reversal on this timeframe.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation, either testing the 5891 high, or higher up while inside the 5922 high. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a test of yesterdays lows followed by a clear bullish cs formation. This will be a sign that the 5769 price area is holding and will be good for a long trade setup, stop 10 pipos below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 23 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup on Euro yesterday, price came 9 pips shy of the BF786 and fell to take out the A low starting a reversal on this timeframe.

FOR TODAY:

We now have a new bearish AB swing in play on this chart. Price has retraced to the 50 of this swing so far. We need price up at the 618/786 of this swing for a short trade setup.

Else a bounce off the BF786 will initiate a long trade setup.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to rally to the 618/786 followed by a bearish cs formation. Trade the 618 entry for 70 pips and the 786 will be a ST to the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will need price to fall to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 23 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie yesterday, we were waiting for a swing low to form.

FOR TODAY:

We seem to have a swing low in place at 1.0335. We now need price to retrace to the 618/786 for a short entry on this pair. Else we are only interested in buying if we test the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need a retracement to the 618/786 followed by a bearish cs formation at either of those levels. Limits will be defined at time of entry. Stops will be 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to test the BF786 followed by a clear bullish cs formation. Limits on this entry will be 70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce. Place stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 22 MARCH 2012

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Price gave us a bearish cs formation yesterday and we went short on that trade setup. We are still  in that trade.

FOR TODAY:

With the bearish cs formation again at the 786 yesterday, we expect price to fall today, maybe after a test of the highs before the fall.

Else if price just rallies without a bearish U turn signal circa yesterdays high, then the bulls are targeting the 5991 highs. A violation of the 5991 highs will start a reversal on this time frame.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation, either testing the 5922 high, or higher up while inside the 5991 high. We will only add positions if the current open trade is 50+ pips in the money. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We are not in long territory here at present, but be on the lookout for dips to yesterdays lows followed by bullish cs formations, a break of 5922 opens the topside targeting the 5991 high.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 22 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup on Euro yesterday, price fell all the way to the A low and bounced, this was after our trading session.

FOR TODAY:

With price bouncing out of the A low yesterday, we can expect price to rally to the BF786 today at least. We will look for a bearish cs formation circa BF786 for a short entry. Else if price rallies and breaks the B high at 3284 then we will have a new AB swing in play.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

If price rallies to the BF786 followed by a bearish cs formation we will enter a short trade. This will be good for a limit down at the A low. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need a dip followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup, preferably around yesterdays lows, this will be good for a 100 pip rally since it would be a DD entry. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 22 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup yesterday on Aussie, we exited our long trade with 3.5 pips loss after the bearish cs formation at Asia’s high.

FOR TODAY:

Price fell and took out the A low at 1.0422, thereby reversing again and resuming the downtrend on this time frame. We now have to wait for a B swing low to form before we can ascertain where the 618/786 will be for a sell entry.

Long trade entries are far off at present since we don’t even have a swing low yet.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We first need a swing low before we can draw fibs and determine where the 618/786 are. We can only sell up at the 618/786 after bearish cs formations.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Probably no long trade set-up during this session since we don’t even have a B swing low yet. We will need a swing high followed by a test of the low and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup – that is far off for now. Will update via stocktwits.com/fxg

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 21MARCH 2012

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No trade setup on Cable yesterday. Price consolidated for most of the day.

FOR TODAY:

We will look for a bearish cs formation while inside the 5913 highs for a short trade setup.

Else if price just rallies without a bearish U turn signal, then the bulls are targeting the 5991 highs. A violation of the 5991 highs will start a reversal on this time-frame.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation either testing the 5913 high, or higher up while inside the 5991 high. Stop will be 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We are not in long territory here at present, but be on the lookout for dips followed by bullish cs formations, a break of 5913 opens the topside targeting the 5991 high.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 21 MARCH 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup on Euro yesterday, price dipped and rallied through the B-3264 high.

FOR TODAY:

If price remains above the B high on a sustained basis then the 3172 becomes the A low. We will need a retracement to the 618/786 for a long trade setup. We don’t have a decent swing high yet, will wait and see what happens in the UK session. 

We have a bigger 618 at 3300 and a previous swing high at 3290, price might find some resistance here – wait and see.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

No trade setup since we don’t have a B- swing high as yet. We first need a swing high, then a test of that high followed by a bearish cs formation for a short entry – so no trade setup during this session. If something develops I will post on www.stocktwits.com/fxg

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

If 3282 becomes the B high and price retraces to the 618/786 then we will look for bullish cs formations at those levels for long trade setups, else if price just rallies from current levels then we have no trade setups.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 21 MARCH 2012

AUD/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

Price gave us the bullish cs formation yesterday after bouncing off the 786. We are still in that long trade setup.

FOR TODAY:

Today will be a DA786 trading day where we are looking for price to extend, we are looking to buy after dips and bullish cs formations until price reaches the BF786.

Else a fall and a break of the 1.0452 lows will open the downside toward 1.0422.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Short trades are only considered once price hits the BF786, until then we stand aside on short entries, or if we break the 1.0422 lows thereby reversing again.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

With today being a DA786 trading day we are looking for price to continue the rally towards the BF786, we look to buy after dips and bullish cs formations with limits set 10pips inside the BF786. We can only add positions if our open trade is 50+ pips in the money.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 20 MARCH 2012

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No trade setup on Cable yesterday . Price rallied to the 786 of the AB swing.

FOR TODAY:

With price rallying to the 786 yesterday and finding resistance there, today should be a DA786 trading day where we are looking for price to test the 786 high and give us a bearish cs formation for a short trade setup.

Else if price just rallies without a bearish U turn signal, then the bulls are targeting the 5991 highs.

A violation of the 5991 highs will start a reversal on this timeframe.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation, either testing yesterday’s highs, or higher up while inside the 5991 highs. Stop will be 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. This will be considered a ST with limits down at the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We are not in long territory here at present, but be on the lookout for dips followed by bullish cs formations, this is an indication that price is heading for the 5991 highs.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 20 MARCH 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and www.stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup on Euro yesterday, price rallied to take out the A-3190 high starting the reversal process on this timeframe.

FOR TODAY:

We seem to have a swing high in place at 3264, we now need to wait for price to hit the BF786 followed by a bearish cs formation for a short trade setup, or a retracement to the 618/786 of this AB swing followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to test the BF786 followed by a bearish cs formation for a short trade setup, place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk, limits for this entry will be 70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce (at at 06h12GMT).

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We can only buy down at the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation. Stop 10 pips below the low, max1% risk , limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 20 MARCH 2012

AUD/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and www.stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup on Aussie yesterday, price gave us the swing high, tested it and fell back into the AB swing. We will place our new swing high at 1.0636.

FOR TODAY:

Past resistance is acting as support here circa 1.0560. Today we will look to sell a test of the high followed by a bearish cs formation.

Else a sustained break of the 1.0636 high will give us a new AB swing in play.

Long trades are only considered once price retraces to the 618/786 of this swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to rally to test the highs and then give us a bearish cs formation. Trade this for 70 pips since we have a shallow bounce. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to retrace to the 618/786 of this swing followed by a bullish cs formation at either of those levels. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1 % risk, limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 19 MARCH 2012

GBP/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast

No trade setup on Sterling on Friday. Price rallied to the 618 of the AB swing.

FOR TODAY:

Looking for price to extend its rally, so we look to buy after a dip and a bullish cs formation with a view to price heading higher up.

Else since we are at the 618 of the AB swing,  if we get a clear bearish cs formation we can enter a short trade setup, else higher up at the 786-5908.

A violation of the 5991 highs will start a reversal on this timeframe.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation either at current levels, or higher up at the 786. Stop will be 13 pips above the high of the cs formation. Limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We are looking for price to extend its rally and we look to buy after a dip and a bullish cs formation. Places stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation. Limits will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 19 MARCH 2012

EUR/USD – follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast

Price gave us the dip on Friday, but we needed it lower for a long entry, price rallied anyway to the A high but never violated the A high.

FOR TODAY:

We are currently in sell territory at the A high, if we get a clear bearish cs formation from current levels it will initiate a short trade setup with limits down at the BF786. 

A dip and a bullish cs formation will have the bulls chasing the A high, a sustained close above the A high will start a reversal on this timeframe.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

Since we are at the A high, we need a clear bearish cs formation for a short trade setup. Stops will be 13 pips above the cs formation; limits will be at the BF786.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We can only buy down at the BF786. Stop 10 pips below the low, limits defined at time of entry.

If we get a dip and a bullish cs formation today then price will probably target the A high at 3190, this will start the reversal process on this time-frame.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.