GBP/USD 31 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No entries on GBP yesterday, price never reached the BF786, so no entry.

We are still in the bull AB swing from yesterday, price bounced off the 786 yesterday outside our trading session. We are looking for a test of that 786 today and a bullish cs formation.

Else if price just rallies from here and we get to the BF786, look for a bearish sc formation to short.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get to the BF786 and a bearish cs formation. Trade this as a PT to the A low since we had a 786 prior. Stops are above the cs formations -50 pips max.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We have already hit the 786 yesterday, we are looking for a test of that level today, if we get a bullish cs formation after a dip we will go long, limits on this trade are at the BF786 -10 pips inside – and stops are below the cs formation, max 50 pips.

EUR/USD 31 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We got the short entry yesterday after the bearish cs formation, limited out at 50 pips.

We are still in the bull AB swing on the 1H chart. Price bounced off the 50 yesterday. We are looking for price to dip deeper into the 618/786. We will however buy if we get another bullish cs formation at either yesterdays lows, or the 4326 lows which is near the 786 anyway.

If price just rallies from here on up then we have no trade setup, but look out for the BF786 and a bearish cs formation to se if we can short there.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price rallies to the BF786 and gives us a bearish sc formation, trade this as a PT to the 618, stop above the cs formation – 50pips max.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get either:

1.       A dip to yesterdays lows -4384 and a bullish cs formation – trade for a 60 pip limit.

2.       A dip to the 618 -4369 and a bullish cs formation- trade for a 60 pip limit.

3.       A dip to 4326/4320 – where we have a double bottom and a 786, if we get a bullish cs formation here its telling us that price is holding at this level. Trade this as a PT to the BF786.

GBP/USD 30 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No entries on GBP yesterday.

We are still in the bull AB swing from yesterday, we need a BF786 and a bearish cs for a short entry, or we need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. If price just rallies from here and takes out the B high we won’t have a long trade setup, but will have a new AB swing then.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get to the BF786 and a bearish cs formation. Limits on this trade will be 60 pips since it’s less than a 382 prior. Stops are above the cs formations -50 pips max.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We are looking to buy down at the 618/786 after bullish cs formations. Limits for 618 will be 60 pips and 786 will be a PT to the BF786. All stops are below the cs formations -50 pips max.

EUR/USD 30 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

No entries on EUR yesterday.

We are still in the bull AB swing on the 1H chart. We are looking to sell a bearish cs formation maybe after a test of yesterday’s highs since we did reach the BF786 yesterday –outside our trading session.

If price just rallies from here we don’t have an entry for a long trade setup, we need a dip to the 618/786.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs from current levels since we are already testing the highs of yesterday. Trade this for a 60 pip limit since it’s less than a 382 prior. Stops must be 10 pips above the cs high – max 50 pips.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We can only buy a bullish cs after price hits the 618/786, limits on the 618 will be 60 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786. All stops are below the cs formations -50 pips max.

GBP/USD 29 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No entries on GBP Friday.

Price took out the B low giving us a new AB swing on the 1H chart, and then took out the last A high doing a reversal on the 1H chart.  We now need a decent swing high to call a B and then for price to fall back to the 618/786 and give us a bullish cs for an entry.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a prior swing for a short entry; we don’t even have a B yet. So no short trade opportunities at present on Sterling.  

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We first need a B to form, once we have that we can determine where the 618/786 is going to be. We are looking to buy down at the 618/786 after bullish cs formations. Limits for 618 will be 60 pips and 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

All stops are below the cs formations -50 pips max.

EUR/USD 29 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We were stopped out at zero on Thursdays short at 4438.

We have a reversal on the 1H chart since price took out the A high a few minutes ago. We now have a new AB upswing in play. We now need to wait two more hours at least for a new B to form; once we have that we can draw our fibs and look for the 618/786 to buy on bullish cs formations.

The only sell would be a BF786, but that is far off for now since we don’t even have a B yet.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need a swing and then a BF786 to short, we don’t even have a B yet, so probably not going to happen today. 

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a B to form, then look for the 618/786, buy a bullish cs after price hits the 618/786, limits on the 618 will be 60 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

All stops are below the cs formations -50 pips max.

GBP/USD 26 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No entries on GBP yesterday.

Price took out the B low giving us a new AB swing on the 1H chart. We are now looking for bearish cs formations higher up the AB swing to enter short. We can enter at the 618/786, or buy a BF786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price up at the 618/786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry. The 618 will attract a 60 pip limit, and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

Price gives us a BF786. Since we would have had a 50 prior bounce (as at 05h00GMT) we will limit a BF786 trade out at the 618.

EUR/USD 26 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We are still in at the 4438 short on the bearish cs formation after a test of the highs again.

We got the bearish cs formation yesterday and price fell short of our BF786 limit by 8 pips and bounced. We are looking for continuation of downtrend today towards the BF786. We remain bearish on this chart until the A high is violated.

Else if price rallies and takes out the highs of the last few sessions then it will probably head for the A high, violation here will constitute a reversal on the 1h chart.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation trade it short with stop above the cs formation and PT it down to the BF786 as well. This is a DABF trading day so we are looking for continuation of the fall to the BF786. Only add to the position if difference between the entries are 50+ pips.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and then a bullish cs formation, trade this to the A high since we had an 86 prior. This will be a PT.

GBP/USD 25 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

We entered the DABF trading day bearish cs formation at 6475, got stopped out on that one for a 50 pip loss, then re-entered the bearish cs formation at 6511 and got limited out at 6410, along with the previous days short at 6534 which also got limited out at 6410. The net result is 175 pips profit (124-50+101)

Price took out the A low doing a reversal on the 1H chart. We are now looking for bearish cs formations higher up the AB swing to enter short. We can enter at the 618/786, or buy a BF786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price up at the 618/786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry. The 618 will attract a 60 pip limit, and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We can only trade a long trade on a BF786. This current formation is not conducive to a BF786 since we don’t have a prior swing in play. Will wait for one to develop before we go long on a BF786.

EUR/USD 25 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We got stopped out on the previous days trade with zero loss since stop was at zero, we re-entered at 4438 short on the bearish cs formation after a test of the highs again. We are still in that trade.

Price rallied to test the highs of the previous day yesterday and fell since, today we will be looking for resumption of downtrend, and will be looking to buy into rallies.

Else if price just rallies without a bearish cs formation and takes out the A high we will be reversing trend on the 1h chart.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation trade it short with stop above the cs formation and PT it down to the BF786 as well. This is a DABF trading day so we are looking for continuation of the fall to the BF786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and then a bullish cs formation, trade this to the A high since we had an 86 prior. This will be a PT.

GBP/USD 24 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

We took the bearish cs formation just 6 pips shy of the BF786 yesterday. We are still in that trade.

Price rallied just shy of the BF786 yesterday and gave us a good bearish cs formation. Today we are looking for resumption of downtrend towards 6400. It is a DABF trading day today so we can expect a rally and a bearish cs formation down to 6400.

If we rally from here without a reversal and take out the B high then we will have a new AB swing in play and will start all over again.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We have a DABF trading day today, we expecting a rally and a bearish cs formation. Trade the bearish sc formation with stop above the cs and limits will be a PT down to the A low.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get a DD entry if price forms a bullish cs formation at the 6440 lows, this will be telling us that the level is holding and will be good for a long trade setup. Stops below the cs formation and limit on that will be 100 pips.

EUR/USD 24 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We had a bearish cs formation deep into the AB swing yesterday; we are still in that trade as it’s a PT to the BF786. Stops are at zero though since we fell 80 pips already.

Price gave us the bearish cs formation we were looking for yesterday and fell since, we are looking for a DABF786 trading day today, so a rally and a bearish cs formation would constitute another short position, adding to yesterdays trade.

Else if price just rallies from here on up and stop us out at zero and goes on to take out the A high then we will be reversing trend on the 1h chart. Wait and see.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation trade it short with stop above the cs formation and PT it down to the BF786 as well. This is a DABF trading day so we are looking for continuation of the fall to the BF786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and then a bullish cs formation, trade this to the A high since we had an 86 prior. This will be a PT.

BRENT OIL 24 AUGUST 2011

BRENT OIL 1H CHART

As mentioned yesterday the failure at the 105 lows told us that price is heading for the 786 up at 110.26, price came just shy of that to 110.16.
We had a bearish cs formation at the 618 again yesterday and that also came shy of 107.00, then rallied, stops should have been at zero anyway.

Today we will be looking g for a test of that 786 and then a bearish cs formation to short.

Else if price keeps rallying then 111.69 will be the next target level, which once bridged, will put the pressure back on the up side.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally and a bearish cs formation, trade this to the BF786 around 106.14.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Can only look at long trades if we get a bullish cs formation at yesterday’s lows, else lower down at the BF786, this will be a PT to the A high since we had a 786 prior.

BRENT OIL 23 AUGUST 2011

I was asked to add Brent Oil to the daily forecast so I will add it for a few days initially and lets see how it goes.

Mail me to livecurrencytraining@telkomsa.net and let me know if you would like this to remain, if the response sufficient I will add it. Or mail me any other comments you might have.

BRENT OIL  1H CHART

Price fell and took out support at 108 (16/8), thereby doing a reversal on the 1h chart. It then rallied to the 618 and fell back to the B low, failure at the low tells us that price is heading deeper into the AB swing.

The double dip on the 1h chart yesterday tells us that price is probably heading for 110.26, if we don’t get a U turn there, then next level is the A high at 111.69, then longer term onto the bigger 786 at 115.40.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the 618 and get another bearish cs formation telling us that the 618 is holding, limit out at 107.00

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a dip and then a bullish cs formation. Trade it to the initial target at 110.26.

GBP/USD 23 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

We had a bullish cs at 7am GMT yesterday after the 786 bounce during Asia, exited that trade for 9 pips loss.

Price rallied on Friday taking out the B high but not closing above. We now have a new AB swing in play, price fell and bounced off the 786, then fell again and bounced off the 86 with a morning star formation. Asia tested that formation and looks to set to rally from here. We are in buy territory.  We are looking for price to rally to the BF786, if we get a bearish cs there we will short down to the A low.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation after we reach the BF786. PT this to the A low since we had a 86 prior.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get a bullish cs at current levels, trade it o the BF786. Exit on a bearish cs formation or place stop at zero once we hit 50 pips – only because there is a chance that price can give us a small rally and then go bearish.

EUR/USD 23 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

No trade setup on EUR yesterday.

Price rallied shy of the 786 on Friday. We had a test of that high yesterday but price failed to follow through on the downside. We will look to sell a bearish cs on a test of the highs. Else if price continues up  we will look for a bearish cs after hitting the 786 at 4461, if we don’t get a bearish cs here and price takes out the A high then we will be reversing on the 1h chart.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to test the highs and then a bearish cs formation, else a bearish cs formation after hitting the 786 at 4461. Trade this as a PT to the BF786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and then a bullish cs formation, trade this to the A high since we had a 786 prior. This will be a PT.

GBP/USD 22 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No entry on GBP on Friday.

Price rallied on Friday taking out the B high but not closing above. We now have a new AB swing in play, price fell and bounced off the 786. We are in buy territory.  We are looking for price to rally to the BF786, if we get a bearish cs there we will short down to the A low.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation after we reach the BF786. PT this to the A low since we had a 786 prior.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get a bullish cs at current levels, trade it to the BF786. Exit on a bearish cs formation or place stop at zero once we hit 50 pips – only because there is a chance that price can give us a small rally and then go bearish.

EUR/USD 22 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We lost 50 pips Friday with the BF786 long entry, price gave us another bullish cs formation but the stop was too big.

Price rallied shy of the 786 on Friday. We now looking for a test of that level today before resumption of downtrend. We will look to sell a bearish cs on a test of the highs. Else if price continues up and takes out the A high then we will be reversing on the 1h chart.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a small rally and then a bearish cs formation. Trade this as a PT to the BF786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the BF786 and  then a bullish cs formation, trade this to the A high since we had a 786 prior. This will be a PT.

GBP/USD 19 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No entry on GBP yesterday, we had a bounce at the 618, but that came at the end of the trading session.

Price bounced overnight off the 618, but failed to rally to the BF786 where we would like price to bounce off before we short. We have to wait for a BF786 and a bearish cs to short, or a bullish cs at the 618, or a bounce off the 786, entering after bullish cs formations.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation after we reach the BF786. PT this to the 786 since we had a 618 prior.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

Price reaches the 618/786 and gives us a bullish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 80-100 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

EUR/USD 19 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

No entries on EUR yesterday, price just fell and took out the A low, doing a reversal.

Price went and took out the A low on the 1h chart, doing a reversal on this timeframe. We now have to wait for either a BF786 and a bullish cs formation to buy, or a sell up at the 618/786, after bearish cs formations.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the 618/786 and get a bearish cs formation, trade the 618 for 100 pips and the 786 to the BF786.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a clear bullish cs formation from current levels. Trade this for 80-100 pips, even though it’s a shallow bounce.

GBP/USD 18 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No entry on GBP yesterday, price came shy of the BF786 and then fell. Also, we had a 786 bounce as per forecast but the stop was once again too big to take the trade.

Price went on to take out the B high giving us a new AB swing. We now have to wait for either a BF786 and a bearish cs to enter short, or a bullish cs after price reaches the 618/786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation after we reach the BF786. Limit out at 80-100 pips.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

Price reaches the 618/786 and gives us a bullish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 80-100 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

EUR/USD 18 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

Had a DABF trading day entry yesterday with a bearish cs formation, but price reversed and we lost 50 pips.

Price rallied and took out the B high giving us a new AB swing, we are now at the 618 of that swing, we can buy a clear bullish cs formation, or we can buy after testing the 786 and then a bullish cs formation. If we continue falling and price takes out the A low at 4324 then we will be reversing on the 1h chart.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the BF786 and get a clear bearish cs formation. Trade this as a PT down to the 786 since we had a 618 prior. (as at 06h00GMT). If this changes during the day adjust limit accordingly.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get a clear bullish cs formation from current levels, or lower down at the 786. Trade the 618 for 80-100 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

GBP/USD 17 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

No trade setup yesterday on GBP.

Price went on to take out the A high on the 1h chart confirming the uptrend on this timeframe. We now have to wait for a BF786 and a bearish cs to short, or price has to hit the 618/786 and then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

On the 4h chart we have price at the BF, and since we have a 786 prior, we can expect that price falls down to the A low, some 400 pips away – bear this in mind if we get a BF786 on the 1h chart.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation after we reach the BF786. Limit out at either 100 pips, or PT down to the A low on the 4h chart, this will take several days to get there though.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

Price reached the 618/786 and gives us a bullish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 70 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

EUR/USD 17 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

No trade setups yesterday on EUR.

Price rallied to the B high yesterday and fell back, we are looking for a further drop today with price testing yesterday’s highs first. Else if we keep rallying then we will have a new AB bullish swing in play.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the BF786 and get a clear bearish cs formation. Trade this for 70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the 618/786 and get a clear bullish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 70 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

GBP/USD 16 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

We lost 50 pips yesterday on the GBP trade, we had a bearish cs formation at the 86, but price reversed and rallied to take out the A high doing a reversal on the 1h chart.

Price went on to take out the A high on the 1h chart doing the reversal process on this timeframe. We now have to wait for a BF786 and a bearish cs to short, or price has to hit the 618/786 and then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

On the 4h chart we have price at the BF786, and since we have a 786 prior, we can expect that price falls down to the A low, some 400 pips away – bear this in mind if we get a BF786 on the 1h chart.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation after we reach the BF786. Limit out at either 100 pips, or PT down to the A low on the 4h chart, REMEMBER this will take several days to get there though.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

Price falls down to the 618/786 and gives us a bullish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 70 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786. Stops below the cs formation, max 50 pip stops.

EUR/USD 16 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We had a trade setup yesterday with a dip and a bullish cs formation, but the stop was once again too big to take the trade.

Price rallied beyond the B high yesterday giving us a new bullish AB swing. We now have to wait for a BF786 and a bearish cs to short, or a bullish cs after hitting the 618/786.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the BF786 and get a clear bearish cs formation. Trade this for 70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We get down to the 618/786 and get a clear bullish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 70 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

GBP/USD 15 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

We exited the long at 100 pips profit.

Price did give us the dip and the bullish cs we were looking for on Friday, but the stop was too big for our strategy rules, so we didn’t take the trade.

Price went on to rally on Friday, finding resistance the 86 of the AB swing. We are in sell territory here, if we get a clear bearish cs formation we will short. Else if we just rally and take out the A high we will be reversing on the 1hour chart.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation from current levels, trade it as a PT to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

Price falls a bit and then gives us a bullish cs formation. Trade this for 100 pips profit.

EUR/USD 15 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We had a trade setup on Friday with a test of the DD, but the stop was too big to take the trade.

We are still in the bullish AB swing, price had rallied since the DD at the 786, we are looking for a DADD trading day today where we expect price to continue up.

We expecting resistance up at the BF786, and a clear bearish cs formation there will initiate a short trade setup.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get to the BF786 and get a clear bearish cs formation. PT trade this to the A low since we had an 86 prior.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We are expecting a DADD trading day today where we looking for a dip and a bullish cs formation. Trade this for a limit of 80-100 pips.

GBP/USD 12 AUGUST 2011

GBP/USD

Price gave us a bullish cs formation after the BF786, entered long at 6155, still in that trade. Will limit at somewhere between 80-100 pips if we get there, stop at zero.

We are still in the down AB swing, price came shy of the 618 during Asia after failing at the B low yesterday. We are looking for a DABF trading day today, we are looking for a dip and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

Shorts will only be considered after price hits the 618/786 and we get a clear bearish cs formation with a workable stop.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We get to the 618/786 and get a bearish cs formation. Trade the 618 for 100 pips and the 786 will be a PT to the BF786.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

Price falls a bit and then gives us a bullish cs formation. Trade this for 100 pips profit.

EUR/USD 12 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD

We got stopped out of the Wednesdays trade with 100 pips profit. We did get a DD at the786/86 yesterday but the cs formation had too big a stop to take.

Price fell and bounced again off the 786/86 level yesterday giving us a DD scenario. We need a test of that cs today and another bullish cs formation to confirm the rally towards the B high.

Short trades are only considered up at the 4360 area after bearish cs formations. Else if price just falls through the A low we then have a reversal taking place on the 1hour chart.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price rallies and gives us a bearish cs formation higher up around the 4360, trade this for 100-150 pips since we are largely sideways in a big range from 4400-4100.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Since we had a DD yesterday again, we are looking for a test of that cs formation. If price falls and gives us a bullish cs formation, trade that for 100-150 pips.