AUD/USD 31 JANUARY 2012

AUD/USD
We also have the same BF786 setup on the AUD.
The prior bounce here is also a 618, so the limit here will be the 786. 
Stop 14 pips above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

GBP/USD 31 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price violated the B high again and we now have to wait for a new B high for a new AB swing.

FOR TODAY:

We need to wait for a new B which will probably take the rest of today’s session.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

No short setup as we don’t have a B high.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

No long trade setup as we don’t have a B high.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 31 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price bounced off the A low yesterday and ran to the BF86. Because we had an A low bounce, we expect price to go to the B high before falling again.

FOR TODAY:

We do however have a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry. We cannot rule out a test of the B high before a fall since we had an A low bounce yesterday.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We have already hit the BF786, and we got a bearish cs formation, so we are in short territory. Trade this to the A low since the prior bounce was deep. If we get stopped out, trade the next bearish cs formation if we get another one higher up while inside the B high. Because of yesterdays deep A bounce we cannot rule out another test of the B high before we fall.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

No long trade setup at present, we need price down at the A low again and a bullish cs formation for a DD entry, else if price rallies and takes out the B high, then we will have to wait for a new B to form, then a retracement to the 618/786 of that AB swing for a long trade setup.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 31 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price bounced off the A low yesterday and ran to the BF86. Because we had an A low bounce, we expect price to go to the B high before falling again.

FOR TODAY:

We do however have a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry. I would wait for a test of the B high before a fall since we had an A low bounce yesterday.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We have already hit the BF786, and we got a bearish cs formation, so we are in short territory. Trade this to the A low since the prior bounce was deep. If we get stopped out, trade the next bearish cs formation if we get another one higher up. Because of yesterdays deep A bounce we cannot rule out another test of the B high before we fall.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

No long trade setup at present, we need price down at the A low again and a bullish cs formation, else if price rallies and takes out the B high, then we will have to wait for a new B to form, then a retracement to the 618/786 of that AB swing for a long trade setup.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 30 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

The 5735 B high pretty much held with price testing 5740 and falling back. We will use the 5740 as the new B high though.

FOR TODAY:

We need to wait for a retracement to the 618/786 of this AB swing and a bullish cs formation for a long trade set-up.

Shorts will only be considered on a test  of the high and a bearish cs formation.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to rally and test the B high and fall back. Trade this bearish cs formation for a short trade set-up, stop 14 pips above the high of the cs formation, limits 60-70 pips since it’s a shallow prior bounce.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price to retrace to the 618/786 of this swing and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation - max 1.5% risk, limits for the 618 will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 30 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied on Friday giving us a new B high so we have a new AB swing in play.

FOR TODAY:

We can only sell after price hits the BF786 and then gives us a bearish cs formation.

Else long trade setups are only considered down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price hits the BF786 and then gives us a bearish cs formation, trade this as a ST to the 786 since we already have a 618 prior bounce. If the prior bounce changes then we change the limit accordingly.  Stops 14 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

Price already hit the 618, so now we need a  bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Else the next level will be the 786 lower down. Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for this entry should be 10 pips inside the BF786, check the risk/reward ratio IF we get a long setup and see if its viable.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 27 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Still the same as yesterday, we have a new A -5528, B-5734 swing in play, yesterday was mostly spent on waiting for a decent swing high to call a B high.

FOR TODAY:

We need to wait for a retracement to the 618/786 of this AB swing and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

Shorts will only be considered if price hits the BF786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to rally and test the B high and fall back after hitting the BF786. Trade this bearish cs formation for a short trade setup, stop 14 pips above the high of the cs formation, limits 60-70 pips since it’s a shallow prior bounce.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price to retrace to the 618/786 of this swing and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation - max 1.5% risk, limits for the 618 will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 27 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied yesterday giving us a new B high so we have a new AB swing in play.

FOR TODAY:

We can only sell after price hits the BF786 at 3160 – if the 3077 swing low holds-  and then gives us a bearish cs formation.

Else long trade setups are considered down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price hits the BF786 and then gives us a bearish cs formation, trade this entry for a limit of 60-70 pips since the prior bounce is a shallow one, stops 14 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to retrace to the 618/786, then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for the 618 entry will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 26 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price bounced at the A low yesterday, then rallied and violated the B high yet again yesterday giving us a new AB swing again.

FOR TODAY:

We again need to wait for a retracement to the 618/786 of this AB swing and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

We don’t have a BF786 setup at present.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We have a B, but we will need a swing low before we can determine the BF786. We will have to wait for the swing low setup before we can ascertain the BF786.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price to retrace to the 618/786 of this swing and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, limits for the 618 will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 26 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied yesterday and took out the B high so we have a new AB swing in play.

FOR TODAY:

We are currently at the B high, so we can sell at current levels after a bearish cs formation, or buy down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We are currently at the B high, we don’t have a decent swing low in place but if we get a bearish cs formation at current levels or at the open of the UK session then we can trade short. Stop 14 pips above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to retrace to the 618/786, then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for the 618 entry will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 24 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price violated the B high yet again and found resistance at 5600 before falling back.

FOR TODAY:

We will call the 5601 high of yesterday the new B with A being down at 5232. We will now wait for either a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short trade, or a long trade setup down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry; right now we have a B high. If the 5536 low remains the swing low then we will have a BF786 up at 5587. Once we hit that price, trade a bearish cs formation after that for 60-70 pips since the prior bounce is a shallow one. Stops 10 pips + spread above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Limits for the 618 will be 60-70 pips, with  the 786 entry being a ST to the BF786. Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 24 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied yesterday and took out the B high on a closing basis, so we have a new AB swing in play now.

FOR TODAY:

We can once again only sell up at the BF786 – after a bearish cs formation, or buy down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to rally to the 3038 (If 2987 remains the swing low) price level and then give us a bearish cs formation for a short entry. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a shallow bounce i.e. less than a 382, stops 10pips + spread above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to fall to the 618/786, then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Stops 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for the 618 entry will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 23 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price rallied on Friday, it seemed to be giving us an AB swing that we might be able to work with.

FOR TODAY:

Looks like we can draw fibs from the A low at 5232, to our new B high at 5576. We can now only buy down at the 618/786 of this swing, or sell once we have BF786 setup.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry; right now we have a B high. We will need to wait for a swing low to form, then a rally to test the B via a BF786 setup.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 23 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied on Friday and we have an AB swing in play now.

FOR TODAY:

We can only sell up at the BF786 – after a bearish cs formation, which for now is at the 2957 price level, or buy down at the 618/786 of this AB swing.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to rally to the 2957 price level and then give us a bearish cs formation for a short entry. Trade this for 60 pips since it’s a shallow bounce ie less than a 382, stops above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to fall to the 618/786, then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. The limits for the 618 entry will be 60-70 pips, and the 786 entry will be a ST to the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 20 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

We are still waiting for a B to form, we still don’t have a decent swing high to call a B for now.

FOR TODAY:

We will have to wait for a swing high to form that we can call a B high. Once we have that we can draw fibs and ascertain where the 618/786 will be for long trade setups.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry, right now we don’t have a B high yet. So we will need to wait for a B to form, then a swing low to form, then a BF786 setup. So probably no short trade setup on GBP today.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. But first we need a B to form before we can draw fibs.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 20 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied and took out the A high doing a reversal on the 1h chart on EUR. We now need a decent B high swing to form in order to draw fibs to ascertain where the 618/786 will be for long entries.

FOR TODAY:

We have to wait for a B to form. We are interested in buying down at the 618/786, but first we need a swing high.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No short setups today since we would need a BF786, and we don’t have a swing high after a B high, so no BF786 short entries today.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We first need a B to form, then draw fibs and wait for price to fall to the 618/786 for a long trade setup. Doesn’t look like it will be in today’s session. Lest wait and see.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 19 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

The short  trade lost 1.5% with price taking out the A high doing a reversal on the 1H chart.

FOR TODAY:

We now have to wait for a new B to form, once we have that we will draw fibs to ascertain where the 618/786 is. We can only buy down at the 618/786, or sell once we have a BF786.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a BF786 and a bearish cs formation for a short entry, right now we don’t have a B high yet. So we will need to wait for a B to form, then a swing low to form, then a BF786 setup. So probably no short trade setup on GBP today.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the 618/786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. But first we need a B to form before we can draw fibs.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 19 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied to the A high of the AB swing. We are currently sitting at the A high, if price takes out the A high we will be reversing on this pair on this timeframe.

FOR TODAY:

If we get a clear bearish cs formation at current levels it will qualify as a short entry. 

Else we have a reversal on our hands if price violates the A high on a closing basis.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a clear bearish cs formation at current levels telling us that the resistance is holding. Trade this as a ST down to the BF786. Stops above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. 

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 18 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price gave us the bearish cs formation we were looking for yesterday at the B high, this will have a limit down at the BF786.

FOR TODAY:

Today We are looking for a DA86 trading day where we are looking for price to continue down to the BF786. We are looking to sell rallies until we reach the BF786.

Only if we take out the 5408 high will we be reversing on this pair.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

With a DA86 trading day today we are looking to sell rallies after bearish cs formations. Stops above the cs formation, max1.5% risk, limits set at the BF786.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 18 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price gave us the bearish cs formation, but came shy of the 786, which for me would have been ideal.

FOR TODAY:

Today we have a DA618 trading day where we are looking for price to extend its fall. We will look to sell rallies after bearish cs formations.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We have a DA618 trading day setup, we are looking for price to continue down today, so we will be selling bearish cs formations after rallies. Stops above the high of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk, limits 60 pips.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 17 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price eventually rallied during the Asian session and we are currently at the 786 of the swing.

FOR TODAY:

We need a bearish cs formation for a short entry on this pair.

Longs are only considered far below at the BF786. If we break the A high we will be reversing on this pair.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

Price has already hit the 786 of the AB swing, we now need to wait for a bearish cs formation for a short trade entry. Stop above the high of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk. Limits for this trade will be down at the BF786, 10 pips inside; this will be a ST entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price down at the BF786 and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Currently quite far away.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 17 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Price rallied off the lows, currently at the 382 of the AB swing.

FOR TODAY:

We can only consider short trade setups up at the 618-2780, or the 786-2823 of this swing. Long trade setups are only considered once price hits the BF786 and we get a bullish cs formation.

Else if price falls and takes out the B low we will then have a new AB downswing in play.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price rallies to the 618/786 and then gives us a bearish sc formation, trade the 618 for 60 pips profit and the 786 will be a ST to the BF786. Stops above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a BF786 and a bullish sc formation for a long trade setup. We don’t have a swing high yet, depending on the swing high prior bounce, place limit accordingly. Right now we are a few pips shy of the 50, if we fall from here and get a BF786, the limit will be at the 618 because of the 50 prior bounce.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 16 JANUARY 2012

EUR/USD

Euro also fell on Friday taking out the B low giving us a new A-2877, B 2623 setup.

FOR TODAY:

We can only consider short trade setups up at the 618-2780, or the 786-2823 of this swing. Long trade setups are a bit hard at present since we are pretty sideways at the B low area, we would need a really dominant bullish cs formation to consider going long.

Else if price falls and takes out the B low we will then have a new AB downswing in play.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price rallies to the 618/786 and then gives us a bearish sc formation, this is quite far away at present, so will probably not get a short setup at those levels today.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a BF786 and a bullish sc formation for a long trade setup. Price is currently trading at the B lows, so we are already in the BF786 territory, but we will need a really dominant bullish cs to trade outside the range telling us that we are heading higher.

Right now not a clear setup so best to stay on the sidelines until something clearer comes along.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 16 JANUARY 2012

GBP/USD

Price fell on Friday taking out the B low giving us a new AB swing. A up at 5408 , and the B down at 5232. Price is still struggling to close below the 5270 lows, better seen on the daily chart.

FOR TODAY:

We will wait for a BF786 – currently down at 5253, and a bullish cs formation for a long entry or wait for price to hit the 618/786 and a bearish cs formation for a short trade setup.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price up at the 618 -5341, or the 786 -5370, and a bearish cs formation for a short trade setup. Trade the 618 for a 60 pip limit and the 786 will be a ST to the BF786. Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5%.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We get down to the BF786, currently at the 5253 price level, and we then get a bullish cs formation, trade this with a limit up at the 618 since we had a 50 prior bounce. Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5%.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.