17 APRIL 2012 - APRIL'S MONTHLY TARGET HAS BEEN REACHED

We limited out with 40 pips profit on yesterday’s Aussie trade. 

This brings us to the monthly target of 2.5% profit for April 2012.


2012 Thus far:
January 2012 :     6.5%
February 2012 : 12.5%
March 2012 :         4.5%
April 2012 :            2.5%


There will be no further FX Daily Forecasts posted on the Blog until 1 May 2012.


Those wishing to receive emailed forecasts can mail me their addresses.

GBP/USD 16 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Sterling on Friday past. Price fell without testing 6006.

FOR TODAY:

Today we will look for price to resume the fall, we will look to sell after rallies and bearish cs formations.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a rally followed by a bearish cs formation. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to find support here at 5800 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long entry. Limits here will be at 60-70 pips, place stop 10 pips below the low, max 1% risk.

Else we need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 16 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Euro on Friday. Price fell and took out the A low overnight thus resuming the downtrend.

FOR TODAY:

We now have to wait for a B swing low to form, until then we have no trade setup.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

No trade set-up until we have a B swing low in place, then a retracement to the 618/786 for a short entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

No long trade setups in this session.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 16 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Friday, price came a few pips shy of the BF entry point.

FOR TODAY:

Price is currently at the 618 and has given us a bullish cs formation, we are thus long on this pair at present.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price reaches the BF786 and gives us a bearish cs formation. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined then.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We are long this pair since we have a bullish cs formation at the 618. Stops are 10 pips below the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits here will be 50-60 pips.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 13 APRIL 2012

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Sterling rallied to the initial target of 5980 yesterday, we are still looking for 6006 though.

FOR TODAY:

We are still looking for price to rally to the 6006 price area before we are interested in trading this pair.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip followed by a bullish cs formation for a long entry. Limits here will be at 5990, stop 10 pips below the low, max 1% risk.

Else we need a  retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EURUSD 13 APRIL 2012

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Price gave us the dip and the bullish cs formation we were looking for, but the trade never had a good risk/reward ratio. Price went on to take out the 3163 high as per analysis. This time frame has now started the reversal process.

FOR TODAY:

With reversal underway, we are now looking to buy at the 618/786 of this AB swing once we have confirming cs formations. We look to sell after price hits the BF786 with confirming cs formations.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We will only consider short trade setups if we get bearish cs formation after hitting the BF786. Stop will be 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined at entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We need price to retrace down to the 618/786 of this swing.  Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUDUSD 13 APRIL 2012

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Price rallied and finally seems to have given us a B swing-high.

FOR TODAY:

With the B swing high in place, we can look to sell after a BF786- followed by bearish confirmation, or buy at the 618/786 after bullish cs formations.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price reaches the BF786 and gives us a bearish cs formation. Trade this for 60-70 pips since its a shallow bounce. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement to the 618/786 of the AB swing for a long entry. Stops below the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 12 APRIL 2012

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Sterling rallied in the morning session and then consolidated; price seems to be pushing for yesterday’s highs at present.

FOR TODAY:

With the DD at 5800 area our preferred strategy is still to buy after dips and a bullish cs formation. We will look for price to extend to 5963 enroute to 6006 over coming sessions.

We only look for short entries after reaching the BF786.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip followed by a bullish cs formation for a long entry. Limits here will be at 5950/80, stop 10 pips below the low , max 1% risk.

Else we need a  retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 12 APRIL 2012

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Price rallied to the 3153 target yesterday but failed to get us an entry with a good risk/reward ratio. We are back in that price area at present (05h45GMT).

FOR TODAY:

We expect price to rally today and break the 3163 high starting a reversal on this timeframe. 

A clear bearish cs formation from current levels will negate this view and initiate a short trade setup.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We will only consider short trade setups if we get bearish cs formation from current levels, or while inside 3163. Stop will be 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined at entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We get a dip followed by a clear bullish cs formation. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Price will then target 3163 or higher.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 12 APRIL 2012

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Price rallied and took out the A high overnight, staring a reversal on this timeframe.

FOR TODAY:

We need a B swing high before we can do anything on this chart. Until then we have no trade setup.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No short entries, we don’t have a B swing high. Stand aside. Will post any developments on stocktwits.com/fxg and twitter.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

No long set-ups, we need a B swing high, then a retracement to the 618/786 of the AB swing for a long entry. Will post any developments on stocktwits.com/fxg and twitter.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 11 APRIL 2012

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Sterling bounced off 5808 again yesterday with a DD long entry.

FOR TODAY:

Today we will to buy after dips and a bullish cs formation. We will look for price to extend to 5963 enroute to 6006 over coming sessions. We only look for short entries much higher after reaching the BF786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip followed by a bullish cs formation for a long entry. Limits here will be at 5950, stop 10 pips below the low , max 1% risk.

Else we need a  retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 11 APRIL 2012

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Price bounced off the BF786 yesterday but it was after our trading session. We will look to buy dips today.

FOR TODAY:

Today will be a DABF786 trading day where we look for price to extend to at least 3160. We look to buy after a dip and a bullish cs formation.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We will only consider short trade setups if we get bearish cs formations circa 3150/60. Stop will be 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits defined at entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We get a dip followed by a bullish cs formation. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits for this trade will be at 3153.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 11 APRIL 2012

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Price fell yesterday and took out the B low giving us a new AB swing. The bounce out of the low could also be viewed as a failure since it was quite a strong bounce.

FOR TODAY:

We will look to buy after a dip and a bullish cs formation. 

Short trades are considered circa yesterdays highs if we get failure at those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

Price rallies to yesterday’s highs and gives us a bearish cs formation. This will be DD entry and will be good for 100 pips. Stop will be 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to dip followed by a bullish cs formation – preferably a test of the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation. Stops 10 pips below the cs formation, max1% risk. Limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 10 APRIL 2012

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Sterling rallied since bouncing off 5804 last week.

FOR TODAY:

We are in no man’s land on Sterling at present, bouncing off the 5804 price level of the big AB swing. We can only sell up at the BF786, or buy lower at the 618/786 of this swing.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 10 APRIL 2012

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Price bounced off the B low yesterday and rallied to the 86 of the swing.

FOR TODAY:

We already have a bearish cs formation after hitting the 86 of this AB swing, if this candle closes like this we will have a sell entry. Else we can only buy lower down after hitting the BF786.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

Price has already hit the 86 of the AB swing and we have a bearish cs formation – if we close with this bearish cs formation then we will have a sell entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be down at 3068.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We get to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits for this trade will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 10 APRIL 2012

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We had a long entry on Thursday which we exited prior to NFP. Price rallied to the 50 of the AB downswing during last nights Asian session.

FOR TODAY:

Price currently in no man’s land on Aussie.  We can only sell at the 618/786, or buy at a BF786 after cs formations confirming the entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to retrace to the 618/786 of this swing followed by a bearish cs formation. Stop will be 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk – Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to test the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation. Stops 10 pips below the cs formation, max1% risk. Limits defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

6 APRIL 2012

No Trading forecast for today being NFP day and Easter Weekend.

I'll be back at the Desk on Tuesday morning for the UK session at 06h00 GMT.

Exit current AUD/USD trade at market with 20 pips profit, or move stop to break even. If trade is still open at time of the fundy, its advisable to exit before NFP fundy, stops might not be honoured depending on the numbers.


Enjoy the long weekend.

GBP/USD 5 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Sterling on yesterday. Price hit the 50 and bounced off it.

FOR TODAY:

We are in no man’s land on Sterling at present, bouncing off the 50 of the big AB swing. We can only sell up at the BF786, or buy lower at the 618/786 of this swing.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 5 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Euro yesterday. Price fell yesterday and took out the 3132 A low starting a reversal on this time frame.

FOR TODAY:

We can only sell up at the 618/786 of this swing, or buy a BF786, both after cs formations.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to retrace to the 618/786 much higher followed by bearish cs formations. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We get to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits for this trade will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 5 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie yesterday, we waited for a B swing low to form all day.

FOR TODAY:

We might have the low established at 1.0243, with the A high up at 1.0464. We can only sell at the 618/786, or buy at a BF786 after cs formations confirming the entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We need price to retrace to the 618/786 of this swing followed by a bearish cs formation. Stop will be 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk – Limits defined later.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need price to test the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation, trade this for 60-70 pips since it’s a shallow bounce. Stops 10 pips below the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 4 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Sterling yesterday. Price never hit the BF786 to trigger the short.

FOR TODAY:

We are in no man’s land on Sterling at present, being at the 382 of the big AB swing. We can only sell up at the BF786, or buy lower at the 618/786 of this swing.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined later.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 4 APRIL 2012

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Price fell past the 3229 price level to the 786 of the AB swing yesterday. The setup was not clear prior to the fall.

FOR TODAY:

Price is at the 786 of the AB swing, a bullish cs formation from current levels or lower will initiate a long trade set-up.

Short trades are only considered up at the BF786 after bearish cs formations.

A violation of 3132 will start the reversal process on this timeframe.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a clear bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We are in buy territory being at the 786 of this upswing. If we get a clear bullish cs formation we will trade it long. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits for this entry will be at  the BF786 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 4 APRIL 2012

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We had the bearish cs formation at the 618 as mentioned yesterday – but the stop was too big and price never tested it again. Price went on to rally past our 1.0338 level mentioned yesterday.

FOR TODAY:

Price broke the B low giving us a new A up at 1.0464 and we are still waiting for a B swing low to form. Until we have that we cannot do anything.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

No setup here since we don’t have a swing low yet.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

No trade set-up since we need a swing low first.

If we don’t get the set-up we are looking for then we don’t trade.

GBP/USD 3 APRIL 2012

Note that I am still using the 4h chart for the post since its the same swing as the 1h chart, but easier to see on 4h time frame.

GBP/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup on Sterling on yesterday. Price broke the 6036 high rallying to 6062 and consolidating since.

FOR TODAY:

We will use 6062 as the new B high of the AB swing. We can only sell after price hits the BF786 of this swing, or buy a lot lower down at the 618/786.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after price hits the BF786. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits here will be 60-70 pips since its s shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 3 APRIL 2012

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We went short on the bearish cs formation yesterday when price failed at 3384 highs. We exited that short trade with 45 pips profit. Price bounced off 3280 and rallied.

FOR TODAY:

Today again we will look to sell a failure at 3384 highs, or buy a bounce out of yesterdays low or the 3250 low. If we get failure again at 3384 then we expect price to fall to 3229.

A sustained break of the 3384 high resumes the uptrend with a new AB swing in play. The higher lows forming on the 1h chart is promising for the bulls targeting the 3384 highs.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a clear bearish cs formation from current levels or higher while inside the 3384 high for a short entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be at 3242 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will go long after a dip and a bullish cs formation inside  yesterday’s lows ,this will be a DD entry and will be god for a 100 pip rally.

Else if that support doesn’t hold the we  need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 3 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie yesterday. Price rallied to test the 618 an hour ago and gave us a huge engulfing candle. This technically is a short trade setup, but the stop is too big at present.

FOR TODAY:

Price has just rallied to the 618 and gave us a bearish cs formation. This is a short trade setup, but I will wait to see if price tests the cs formation before a fall since the stop is some 74 pips – which is too big for me. This bearish cs formation should be good for a fall to the BF786.

If the 618 doesn’t hold we have a 786 higher up at 1.0502.

Long trade setups are considered once price hits the BF786 and then gives us a bullish cs formation.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We will sell a test of the Asian high followed by a bearish cs formation. This 618 entry will be good for 60-70 pips. Stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation , max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits on this trade will be defined at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

The total pips made for March 2012 amounted to 225 pips. On 1% risk that is 4.5% return for March 2012.

GBP/USD 2 APRIL 2012

Note the 4h chart above, same AB swing as the 1h.

GBP/USD - follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast and stocktwits.com/fxg

No trade setup on Sterling on Friday past. Price broke the 6000 highs doing a reversal on this timeframe.

FOR TODAY:

Price hit the BF786 during the Asian session. We will look to sell another test followed by a bearish cs formation.

Else a sustained break of the 6036 high will give us a new AB swing in play.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We get a bearish cs formation after another test of the Asian high. Place stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits here will be 60-70 pips since its s shallow bounce.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a retracement down to the 618/786 followed by clear bullish cs formations at either of those levels.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

EUR/USD 2 APRIL 2012

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For those that traded on Friday there was a short setup that should have been exited either with 20 pips profit, or at zero in order to be flat into the weekend. Price is back at that same point at present - 05H45GMT

FOR TODAY:

Price is currently at the BF86 area, a bearish cs formation from current levels while inside the 3384 will be a sell entry.

A rally and a sustained break of 3384 negates this view giving us resumption of uptrend with a new AB swing forming.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need a bearish cs formation from current levels or higher while inside the 3384 high for a short entry. Place stop 13 pips above the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits will be at 3242 over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF

We will go long if price reaches circa 3280 or yesterday’s lows and gives us a bullish cs formation, this will be a DD entry and will be god for a 100 pip rally.

Else if that support doesn’t hold the we  need price to fall to the 618/786 followed by a bullish cs formation, limits on this trade will be defined if we get this setup. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

AUD/USD 2 APRIL 2012

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No trade setup on Aussie on Friday, price gap opened by some 100 pips last night – hence the post to be flat into the weekend.

FOR TODAY:

Price came 1 pip shy of hitting the 618 during the Asian session. We can only sell a test of the high, or buy down at the BF786.

SHORT: Will be going short only IF:

We will sell a test of the Asian high followed by a bearish cs formation. This 618 entry will be good for 60-70 pips. Stop 13 pips above the high of the cs formation , max 1% risk.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: Will be going long today only IF:

We need a dip to the BF786 followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.  Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 1% risk. Limits on this trade will be define at time of entry.

If we don’t get the setup we are looking for then we don’t trade.