EUR/USD 11 NOVEMBER 2013

Price fell to the BF786 area on Friday after the NFP number. If we get a clear bullish cs formation from current levels or lower down while inside the B low then we can expect price to rally towards 3500 over coming sessions. Else a fall and a sustained break of the B low will have us looking for another B low, keeping the A where it is.

Will be going long today if:

1.       We need a clear bullish cs formation from current levels, or lower down while inside the B low, maybe after a test of Friday’s lows even. Place stop 10 pips below the low of the cs formation, max 0.5% risk, limits 100 pips or if you are a swing trader, then 10 pips inside 3500, at 3490.

2.       Remember a fall and a sustained break of the B low negates this view.

Will be going short today if:

1.       No setups at present – stand aside.

GBP/USD 11 NOVEMBER 2013

Price fell on Friday with NFP taking us beyond the minor618 almost to the 786. We didn't get a bullish cs formation as a long entry as yet. We continue to look for an entry long, maybe after a test of the lows on Friday, or just a 618 of Friday’s lows. Patience is needed.

Will be going long today if:

1.       We are waiting for a test of Fridays lows, either the low itself or just a 50/618 retracement followed by a clear bullish cs formation on the 1h chart. Stops 10 pips below the cs formation, max 0.5% risk, limits either inside the A high or 100 pips.

Will be going short today if:

1.       No criteria in place for short trade setups - stand aside. A sustained break of the B low confirms the reversal.

EUR/USD 26 MARCH 2013

Price has retraced down to the A low, it has poked through but has not sustained the break. If we get a bounce out of this level then it will be a long trade setup. Else if price falls and breaks the A low on a sustained basis then we will have continuation of the downtrend.

Will be going long if:

We are looking for a test of the low followed by a clear bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Place stop below the low of the cs formation, limits 100 pips.

Will be going short if:

No setups at present, stand aside.

GBP/USD 26 MARCH 2013

We have a clearer B swing high in place now, we have to wait for a retracement down to the fib levels before we look at buying. No short setups at present.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

No trade setups, stand aside.

AUD/USD 26 MARCH 2013

Still waiting for a B swing high to form, we are looking to buy the dip. No trade setups at present. Stand aside.

Will be going long if:

We need a retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

We have no short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 25 MARCH 2013

Price has started the reversal process on this time frame and has closed the gap down of last week. We will now wait for a B to form, then a retracement down to our levels of interest to go long. For now we have no setups, stand aside.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups at present - stand aside.

Will be going short if:

No setups at present, price not in any area of interest, wait for a 618/786.

GBP/USD 25 MARCH 2013

Price has taken out the 5200 level and has started the reversal process on this time frame. We now have to wait for a B swing high to form, then a pullback down to the 618 for an entry long. Stand aside for now.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

No trade setups, stand aside.

AUD/USD 25 MARCH 2013

Price is trending up as can be seen above. We don’t have an entry as yet, we need to wait for a swing high followed by a dip for a long trade setup. Be patient, stand aside.

Will be going long if:

We need a retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

We have no short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 20 MARCH 2013

Price fell and took out the B low giving us a new AB swing. We once again have to wait for a retracement to the 618/786 of this swing for a short entry. Else a sustained break of 1.3000 will start a reversal on this time frame.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups at present - stand aside.

Will be going short if:

No setups at present, price not in any area of interest, wait for a 618/786.

GBP/USD 20 MARCH 2013

Still sideways on this pair, we are short since there was a test and a bearish cs formation late yesterday afternoon. We need a break of 5070-65 to open the downside towards 4920. Else a sustained break of 5200 will start a reversal on this time frame.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

We remain short for now, will look to see if we get a fall through 5070-50 to open the downside. I will not be adding to this position at present.

AUD/USD 20 MARCH 2013

Still waiting for price to fall down to 1.0330, we are currently at a minor 618 so let’s see if we get resistance at this level for a stab lower. We will be looking for long opportunities circa 618/786. Else a rally and a break of 1.0414 will give us a new AB swing.

Will be going long if:

We need a deeper retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

Even though we are expecting price to fall down to 1.0330, we have no short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 19 MARCH 2013

Price rallied a bit, as far as the 50, and has been sideways since. We need price up at the 618/786 before we can look at short entries. We are still expecting a gap close sometime this week. Price has already tested the minor 618 so a bullish cs formation might push price higher.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups at present - stand aside. For those that trade gap closes, there might be an opportunity. Price has already tested the minor 618, so either a bullish cs formation, or a test followed by a bullish cs formation might be the trigger for a long entry.

Will be going short if:

No setups at present, price not in any area of interest, wait for a 618/786.

GBP/USD 19 MARCH 2013

Price is sideways on this pair as can be seen. We are still holding up at the 86, another test thereof followed by a bearish cs formation will drive price lower, else a sustained break of 5200 will offer us a reversal on this time frame.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

Price tested the 86 and fell a bit, we are looking for another test followed by another clear bearish cs formation for a short trade. Else stand aside.

AUD/USD 19 MARCH 2013

Price closed the gap down as can be seen. Resistance at the high leads us to believe that price is heading down to 1.0330 over coming sessions. We don’t however have an entry as yet. A sustained break of the B high will give us another swing in play.

Will be going long if:

We need a deeper retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

Even though we are expecting price to fall down to 1.0330, we have no short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 18 MARCH 2013

Price had a HUGE gap opening last night, some 160 pips, breaking the B low yet again. We have a new A high, waiting for a B low to form. We have no trade setups, but we do expect price to close the gap, or at least attempt to do so over coming sessions.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups at present - stand aside. For those that trade gap closes, there might be an opportunity.

Will be going short if:

No setups at present.

GBP/USD 18 MARCH 2013

Price seemed to have found resistance at the 86 of the current swing. We did get a bearish cs formation but it was late in the Friday session. We are looking for a DA86 trading day today where we are looking for price to test the highs and give us another bearish cs formation for a short. If it doesn't  and price continues to rally then we look for a sustained break of 5200 and a reversal.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

Price tested the 86 and fell a bit, we are looking for a test followed by another clear bearish cs formation for a short trade. Else stand aside.

AUD/USD 18 MARCH 2013

Aussie also gap opened last night, falling to the 50 of this swing. We are clearly trending up on this time frame  We are looking for a retracement followed by a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Expect price to aim to close the gap on this pair as well, or at least attempt.

Will be going long if:

We need a deeper retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

No short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 15 MARCH 2013

We have a new lower B that formed yesterday with price bouncing quite hard out of that support level. We will look for resistance at the 618/786 to see if we get a fall from there. Else a rally to take out 3135 will be added confirmation that a base might be in place with a correction following.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups at present - stand aside.

Will be going short if:

Nothing at present, we waiting for a short entry circa 618/786, although confidence is low. A sustained break of 3135 will have us change bias.

GBP/USD 15 MARCH 2013

Price rallied and has retraced to the 786 of this swing, we will look for a sign of weakness in this area, although confidence is low. A sustained break of 5200 will have us believe that a base might be in place with a correction higher taking place. If nothing clear develops, stand aside.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

Price is at the 786, although we have no entries at present for a short trade. We need a clear bearish cs formation for a short entry. Else stand aside.

AUD/USD 15 MARCH 2013

Price rallied to give us a higher B high, a bit messy at present as we are waiting for a swing high to form. No trades at present, wait until something clearer develops. The trend is up.

Will be going long if:

We need a retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

No short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 14 MARCH 2013

Price found resistance at Tuesdays highs and fell down to the D extension. We now have a new AB swing in play. The deep bounce and support at the D extension might be indicative of a base staring to form. A clear break of 3135 will confirm this. No trade setups at present, even if price falls from current levels we will then just wait for a new B to form.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

No trade setups at present, stand aside.

GBP/USD 14 MARCH 2013

Price largely sideways on this pair with price virtually where it was yesterday this time. Resistance was found at PS/R level but we still not in any area of interest as yet, so no trade setups at present

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

We are waiting for a retracement, no trade setups at present.

AUD/USD 14 MARCH 2013

Price has reversed on this pair as can be seen on the chart, there have not been any entries, we continue to wait for an entry to present itself for a long trade setup. Until then we stand aside.

Will be going long if:

We need a retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

No short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 13 MARCH 2013

Price tested the area of interest and bounced, we entered long and that position is still open. We don’t look to add to that position as yet as price has not produced an additional entry. We are still looking for price to rally up towards the 3150 area over coming sessions. Only a fall and a break of the 2960 area negates this view and continues the downtrend.

Will be going long if:

We are not looking to add to our current long position as yet; we don’t have the criteria in place. Although I expect price to rally towards 3150 over coming sessions, I have set my limit at 3114 – 100 pips.

Will be going short if:

Shorts will be considered on a test of yesterday’s highs followed by a clear bearish cs formation.

GBP/USD 13 MARCH 2013

Price once again dipped lower yesterday, moving our B yet again. Lets see if this becomes the B we have been waiting some time for. We have to wait for a retracement to the 618/786 for a short setup where we will be looking for resistance. Else reversals are on the cards on a sustained break of 5200.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

We are waiting for a retracement, no trade setups at present.

AUD/USD 13 MARCH 2013

Price broke the B high yesterday on a closing basis giving us a new AB  swing to work with. If price violates the current B high then we will wait for a new one to form. While it holds we will look for a retracement before buying.

Will be going long if:

We need a retracement before buying. Stand aside for now.

Will be going short if:

No short setups at present , stand aside.

EUR/USD 12 MARCH 2013

Price gave us a bit of a bounce out of support, nothing clear to buy as yet. Today we will look for a test of that support and another bullish cs formation for a long entry. Once again, a fall from current levels and a sustained break of the 2963 area will negate this view and continue the downtrend.

Will be going long if:

We are in buy territory, although we have no entry as yet. We are waiting for a bullish cs formation, maybe after a test of the lows before we rally. Place stop 10 pips below the low, limits 3162.

Will be going short if:

Shorts will be considered on a minor 618 test followed by bearish confirmation.

GBP/USD 12 MARCH 2013

Price dipped slightly lower yesterday giving us a new B low, but we’ll keep the A high where it is. We seem to be testing the low at present. We have no trade setups at present, we remain side-lined. If price drops lower then we will again have a new B to look out for.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

We are waiting for a retracement, no trade setups at present.

AUD/USD 12 MARCH 2013

Price bounced out of the 50 level, poked through the B high by 12 pips, and is back inside at present. We need a sustained break of the B high to confirm the start of an uptrend. If we remain inside the B high then there is a chance that price might retrace down to the 618 where we will be looking for a long trade setup.

Will be going long if:

We need a retracement to the 618 where we will look for a long entry, else a sustained break of the B high will give us a new AB swing, where we will have to wait for a  B to form first.

Will be going short if:

No short setups at present as we are in the process of a reversal with no criteria in place for a short, stand aside.

EUR/USD 11 MARCH 2013

Price fell on Friday – I was away from the desk but for those of you at the PC, you would have caught the short entry. Price fell aggressively to the target, some 80 pips away. The support level was however not broken, so a bounce out of current levels will have us looking towards 3162 over coming sessions. Of course a sustained break of 2965 negates this view and continues the downtrend.

Will be going long if:

We are in buy territory, although we have no entry as yet. We are waiting for a bullish cs formation, maybe after a test of the lows before we rally. Place stop 10 pips below the low, limits 3162.

Will be going short if:

Shorts will be considered on a minor 618 test followed by bearish confirmation.

GBP/USD 11 MARCH 2013

Price fell on Friday to the 118 D extension where we seemed to have found support. We now have to wait for a B swing low to form, followed by a retracement. No trade setups at present.

Will be going long if:

No trade setups, we don’t have any criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

We are waiting for a retracement, no trade setups at present.

AUD/USD 11 MARCH 2013

Price fell back to the 1.0208 area as per Friday’s analysis. We are still waiting for a 618 entry for a long trade setup. If this area doesn’t hold, we have a 786 lower down. Only a sustained break of  1.0300 negates this view and confirms the start of an uptrend.

Will be going long if:

We need a retracement to the 618 where we will look for a long entry.

Will be going short if:

No short setups at present as we are in the process of a reversal, stand aside.

EUR/USD 8 MARCH 2013

As per yesterday’s analysis, price rallied past the 3087 area onto 3120 where we have a 786, we expect to find resistance at this level , however, at the time of writing we don’t have a clear bearish cs formation to enter short. A rally and a sustained break of 3160 opens the upside.

Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside. We need price at the BF area from where we will consider long positions. Nothing as yet.

Will be going short if:

We are at the 786 where we will be looking for short trade setups.  We don’t have anything clear as yet. A sustained break of the A high starts a reversal on this timeframe.

GBP/USD 8 MARCH 2013

Price did give us the bounce out of the B low area, but we are back there again testing the lows. We need to find support here again to head up. If the low doesn’t hold and price breaks to the downside then we will have a new AB swing in play. A bounce however should have price heading towards 5220.

Will be going long if:

We will only consider long entries on a clear bounce out of current levels. Limits will be 5210 over coming sessions and will signal a reversal in progress. Stops will be 10 pips below the low, max 1% risk.

Will be going short if:

No short immediate short setups, we need a minor 618 test for a short entry, for now we stand aside.

AUD/USD 8 MARCH 2013

Price bounced off the382 and has since fallen back, here we are looking for price to fall back to 1.0208 at least. We are looking for a 618 for an entry to go long. A sustained break of the B high will give us the start of a new uptrend.

Will be going long if:

No immediate long trade setups since we have no criteria in place. Stand aside. We are waiting for a retracement down to the 618/786 for a long entry.

Will be going short if:

Even though we are expecting price to fall down to 1.0208 initially, we have no short setups, we have a reversal in progress. Stand aside.

EUR/USD 6 MARCH 2013

Price still largely sideways on this pair as we are still waiting for a retracement to the 618/786, where, if we find resistance and a bearish cs formation, we will enter a short trade setup.  Else if price rallies then we looking for reversals on a sustained break of 3162.

Follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast where intraday updates are tweeted.

Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

We need a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups.  A sustained break of the A high starts a reversal on this timeframe.

GBP/USD 6 MARCH 2013

Price rallied past the 618 onto the 786 of this swing, where it found resistance and fell a bit. Today is a DA786 trading day where we will be looking for a test followed by another bearish cs formation for a short entry. Else if price rallies and doesn't give us any bearish cs formations, and violates 5220, then we start a reversal on this pair.

Follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast where intraday updates are tweeted.

Will be going long if:

No long setups, no criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

We need a clear bearish cs formation, preferably after a minor 618 test for a short trade setup. Only a sustained break of 5220 negates this view and starts a reversal on this pair.

AUD/USD 6 MARCH 2013

Price continued up yesterday and violated the 1.0290 high, although not on a closing basis as yet. We will have to wait for a B high to form, then a pullback to the 618 for a long entry.

Follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast where intraday updates are tweeted.

Will be going long if:

No immediate long trade setups since we have no criteria in place. Stand aside. We are waiting for a B high to form, then a retracement down to the 618/786 for a long entry.

Will be going short if:

No short setups, we have a reversal in progress. Stand aside.

EUR/USD 5 MARCH 2013

Price went sideways for most of the day yesterday; we are currently at the 382 of the current AB swing. We need price up at the 618/786 of the swing for a short entry. We look at reversal once we take out the A high.

Follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast where intraday updates are tweeted.

Will be going long if:

No long setup at present. We don’t have any entry criteria for long trades at present, stand aside.

Will be going short if:

We need a retracement to the 618/786 where we will be looking for short trade setups.  A sustained break of the A high starts a reversal on this time frame.

GBP/USD 5 MARCH 2013

Price is currently at the 618 of this swing. We need a bearish cs formation from current levels for a short entry, else a sustained break of 5220 will start a reversal on this time frame.

Follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast where intraday updates are tweeted.

Will be going long if:

No long setups, no criteria in place.

Will be going short if:

We need a clear bearish cs formation for a short trade setup. If the 618 doesn't hold then we have a 786 higher up. Only a sustained break of 5220 negates this view and starts a reversal on this pair.

AUD/USD 5 MARCH 2013

Price is currently at the 786 of this swing, we are looking for a bearish cs formation from current levels for a short entry. If we don’t get a short trade setup and price rallies to take out the 1.0290 level then we are looking at a reversal on this pair.

Follow me on twitter @fxdailyforecast where intraday updates are tweeted.

Will be going long if:

No immediate long trade setups since we have no criteria in place. Stand aside.

Will be going short if:

Price is at the 786, we need a bearish cs formation for a short setup, else if price continues up and takes out 1.0290, this view will be negated, with a reversal setting up.