EUR/USD 30 NOVEMBER 2011

EUR/USD

The bearish entry on Monday lost 1.5% since price rallied yesterday and took out the A high doing the reversal on the 1h chart. We now need  a break of the new B high to confirm the reversal.

FOR TODAY:

Price bounced off the 618 late in yesterday’s session but hasn’t gone anywhere since. We are looking for a test of the 618/786 today and a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup.

Else we can only sell up at the BF786 after a bearish cs formation.

SHORT: WILL ONLY BE GOING SHORT IF:

We need price to rally to the BF786 up at 3409 and then we need a bearish cs formation confirming the short trade entry. At the time of writing the prior bounce is a 618, so the limit for this entry will be the 786 lower down, stop above the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.

LONG: WILL ONLY BE GOING LONG TODAY IF:

We are looking for a test of the 618 or the 786 and then a bullish cs formation for a long trade setup. Trade the 618 for 100 pips and the 786 will be ST to the BF786. Stops below the low of the cs formation, max 1.5% risk.

For Position traders - We have the new AB swing and if we get a long entry setup, we could look at placing the limit for this first trade at a fib on the daily chart and allowing price to run for a couple of days, we have a 618 up at 3851, this could be a decent target for a retracement over coming sessions.

If we don’t get the cs formations we are looking for then we don’t trade.